TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13042059
Played Aug 30Finished
Marcin Jadczyk
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117114911119––
Maksymilian Miastowski
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:03 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Jadczyk above · Maksymilian Miastowski below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 73 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 56.2%
73 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Jadczyk 32–23 Maksymilian Miastowski Maksymilian Miastowski has won 23 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:03What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Jadczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-23 in 55
Jadczyk
Correct
gap of 9 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadczyk 1904 vs Miastowski 1760
Jadczyk
Correct
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadczyk 40% vs Miastowski 60%
Miastowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadczyk 40% vs Miastowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadczyk -1 · Miastowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Jadczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Miastowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadczyk 1.57 / Miastowski 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Jadczyk)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13042059
Jadczyk1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 433 of 680
Up 2–0, closes it98% 224 of 229
Up 1–0, closes it84% 343 of 411
Miastowski2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 89 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back26% 28 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJadczyk7wins
AwayMiastowski3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJadczyk leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadczyk71.4%5 of 7
AwayMiastowski33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadczyk7Miastowski3n = 10Jadczyk took 7 of 10
S2Jadczyk7Miastowski3n = 10Jadczyk took 7 of 10
S3Jadczyk5Miastowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Jadczyk4Miastowski5n = 9Miastowski took 5 of 9
S5Jadczyk2Miastowski1n = 3Jadczyk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJadczykMiastowskiJ − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.340.3+2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadczykMiastowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime961 / 1640 vs 581 / 112458.6%51.7%961 / 1640 vs 581 / 1124Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykJadczyk 1.57/Miastowski 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 12:05M. Jadczyk—11119113M. Miastowski—741191
LAug 30 · 07:45M. Jadczyk—11611982M. Miastowski—211911113
WAug 23 · 06:05M. Jadczyk—714119113M. Miastowski—111271192
LAug 11 · 06:55M. Jadczyk—1111591M. Miastowski—13811113
WAug 10 · 07:45M. Jadczyk—1311116113M. Miastowski—15971162
WAug 9 · 03:45M. Jadczyk—14115113M. Miastowski—1281181
WJun 10 · 11:35M. Jadczyk—11113113M. Miastowski—771181
WJun 9 · 13:15M. Jadczyk—12711123M. Miastowski—10118101
LJun 9 · 04:40M. Jadczyk—13126121M. Miastowski—111411143
WMay 26 · 03:55M. Jadczyk—1112113M. Miastowski—71090
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 7 · 07:45J. Kosowski1.8181111113M. Jadczyk1.86117871LSep 7 · 06:55S. Kolasa2.00131111113M. Jadczyk1.73156591WSep 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.141111510113G. Poliniewicz5.0079111282WSep 7 · 03:45P. David1.91117851M. Jadczyk1.8091111113WSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113LSep 4 · 14:10A. Grela2.10129147113M. Jadczyk1.671011121182LSep 4 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.44591191K. Kolodziej2.6311118113WSep 4 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.8311912133A. Dosz1.8381110111WSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113WSep 4 · 07:45S. Dosz2.38891161M. Jadczyk1.5311116113
M. Miastowski10
WAug 30 · 14:35M. Nowalinski1.83511713112M. Miastowski1.831141111133LAug 30 · 13:20M. Miastowski2.3871120T. Spanik1.531113113LAug 30 · 10:50M. Gawlas3.001112113M. Miastowski1.3681090LAug 30 · 09:20A. Daniel2.2091111113M. Miastowski1.61116561WAug 30 · 07:45M. Miastowski2.10211911113M. Jadczyk1.6711611982WAug 30 · 06:30M. Miastowski1.5711512113M. Nowalinski2.259111081WAug 30 · 05:15M. Miastowski2.251114113T. Spanik1.5761270LAug 30 · 04:10M. Gawlas3.4011111011113M. Miastowski1.3013912892LAug 30 · 03:25M. Miastowski1.676860A. Daniel2.101111113LAug 29 · 14:10M. Nowalinski2.2014117143M. Miastowski1.6112911131
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