TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13042230
Played Aug 30Finished
Maksymilian Miastowski
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111113211––––
Tibor Spanik
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:29 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksymilian Miastowski above · Tibor Spanik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 2-11
Point 55 set 3, 2-11 — our read held Tibor Spanik at 57.4%
55 points played in total.
H2H Maksymilian Miastowski 5–11 Tibor Spanik Maksymilian Miastowski has won 5 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:29What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Spanik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-11 in 16
Spanik
Correct
gap of 6 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Miastowski 1760 vs Spanik 1831
Spanik
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Miastowski 40% vs Spanik 60%
Spanik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Miastowski 30% vs Spanik 50%
Spanik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Miastowski -3 · Spanik +2
Miastowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Spanik) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMiastowski 2.38 / Spanik 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Spanik)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13042230
Miastowski2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 89 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back26% 28 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 60
Spanik1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 142 of 245
Up 2–0, closes it92% 69 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it76% 104 of 137
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMiastowski3wins
AwaySpanik7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSpanik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMiastowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySpanik87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Miastowski2Spanik8n = 10Spanik took 8 of 10
S2Miastowski2Spanik8n = 10Spanik took 8 of 10
S3Miastowski4Spanik6n = 10Spanik took 6 of 10
S4Miastowski4Spanik1n = 5Miastowski took 4 of 5
S5Miastowski2Spanik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMiastowskiSpanikM − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match34.338.0−3.7per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMiastowskiSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime581 / 1124 vs 220 / 39451.7%55.8%581 / 1124 vs 220 / 394Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikMiastowski 2.38/Spanik 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Spanik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 13:20M. Miastowski—71120T. Spanik—1113113
WAug 30 · 05:15M. Miastowski—1114113T. Spanik—61270
LAug 29 · 13:20M. Miastowski—89111162T. Spanik—111156113
LAug 29 · 07:45M. Miastowski—1071191T. Spanik—12114113
WJul 19 · 09:00M. Miastowski—11101011113T. Spanik—51212682
LJul 19 · 06:30M. Miastowski—6780T. Spanik—1111113
LJul 18 · 09:00M. Miastowski—48111152T. Spanik—111199113
WJul 18 · 07:45M. Miastowski—711211113T. Spanik—11611952
LMay 25 · 10:45M. Miastowski—10690T. Spanik—1211113
LMay 25 · 08:25M. Miastowski—71170T. Spanik—1113113
M. Miastowski10
WAug 30 · 14:35M. Nowalinski1.83511713112M. Miastowski1.831141111133LAug 30 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.5711119113M. Miastowski2.25741191LAug 30 · 10:50M. Gawlas3.001112113M. Miastowski1.3681090LAug 30 · 09:20A. Daniel2.2091111113M. Miastowski1.61116561WAug 30 · 07:45M. Miastowski2.10211911113M. Jadczyk1.6711611982WAug 30 · 06:30M. Miastowski1.5711512113M. Nowalinski2.259111081WAug 30 · 05:15M. Miastowski2.251114113T. Spanik1.5761270LAug 30 · 04:10M. Gawlas3.4011111011113M. Miastowski1.3013912892LAug 30 · 03:25M. Miastowski1.676860A. Daniel2.101111113LAug 29 · 14:10M. Nowalinski2.2014117143M. Miastowski1.6112911131
T. Spanik10
WAug 31 · 13:45T. Spanik1.61101111113M. Jadczyk2.20123431LAug 31 · 12:30T. Spanik1.831110111562K. Petas1.831312613113WAug 31 · 11:15T. Spanik1.731111113K. Wloczko2.007540LAug 31 · 10:00J. Kosowski1.671110711113T. Spanik2.1081211942LAug 31 · 09:20T. Spanik1.5711771182K. Strowski2.25511114113WAug 31 · 08:30T. Spanik1.73811911113K. Petas2.0011811762LAug 31 · 06:55T. Spanik1.7371111161M. Jadczyk2.0011135183LAug 31 · 05:40T. Spanik2.25511661J. Kosowski1.5711511113WAug 31 · 04:10T. Spanik1.4011114113D. Kosmal2.751151241LAug 30 · 05:15M. Miastowski2.251114113T. Spanik1.5761270
Upcoming Matches
M. Miastowski
Nothing scheduled
T. Spanik
Sep 8 · 03:45T. Spanik1.73A. Wiecek2.00—Sep 8 · 04:30T. Spanik2.75P. David1.40—Sep 8 · 06:05T. Spanik1.91M. Olejnik1.80—Sep 8 · 06:55T. Spanik2.00J. Kosowski1.73—Sep 8 · 07:45T. Spanik2.63J. Folwarski1.44—Sep 8 · 09:00T. Spanik1.61K. Kolodziej2.20—Sep 8 · 10:00T. Spanik2.00J. Kosowski1.73—Sep 8 · 11:40T. Spanik1.73K. Wloczko2.00—Sep 8 · 12:55T. Spanik1.91M. Olejnik1.80—Sep 8 · 14:35T. Spanik1.73A. Wiecek2.00—
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