TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13042187
Played Aug 30Finished
Maksymilian Miastowski
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1195111210118––
Maciej Nowalinski
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:16 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeMaksymilian Miastowski to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksymilian Miastowski above · Maciej Nowalinski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 77 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Maksymilian Miastowski at 60.5%
77 points played in total.
H2H Maksymilian Miastowski 38–35 Maciej Nowalinski Maciej Nowalinski has won 35 of their 73 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:16What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Miastowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-35 in 73
Miastowski
Correct
gap of 3 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Miastowski 1760 vs Nowalinski 1772
Nowalinski
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Miastowski 20% vs Nowalinski 60%
Nowalinski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Miastowski 40% vs Nowalinski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Miastowski +1 · Nowalinski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Miastowski) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowalinski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMiastowski 1.57 / Nowalinski 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Miastowski)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13042187
Miastowski1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 136 of 233
Up 2–0, closes it96% 54 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it78% 92 of 118
Nowalinski2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 134 of 365
Down 0–1, comes back18% 38 of 212
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMiastowski5wins
AwayNowalinski5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMiastowski57.1%4 of 7
AwayNowalinski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Miastowski7Nowalinski3n = 10Miastowski took 7 of 10
S2Miastowski2Nowalinski8n = 10Nowalinski took 8 of 10
S3Miastowski5Nowalinski5n = 10split evenly
S4Miastowski6Nowalinski4n = 10Miastowski took 6 of 10
S5Miastowski3Nowalinski3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMiastowskiNowalinskiM − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match46.845.4+1.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMiastowskiNowalinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime581 / 1122 vs 838 / 173851.8%48.2%581 / 1122 vs 838 / 1738Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MiastowskiMiastowski 1.57/Nowalinski 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Miastowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Miastowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 14:35M. Miastowski—1141111133M. Nowalinski—511713112
WAug 30 · 06:30M. Miastowski—11512113M. Nowalinski—9111081
LAug 29 · 14:10M. Miastowski—12911131M. Nowalinski—14117143
LAug 29 · 05:15M. Miastowski—1287111M. Nowalinski—101111133
WAug 23 · 09:40M. Miastowski—911711113M. Nowalinski—11411182
WAug 9 · 14:35M. Miastowski—135811113M. Nowalinski—111111782
LAug 9 · 06:30M. Miastowski—1013101172M. Nowalinski—1211124113
LMay 27 · 12:45M. Miastowski—111311582M. Nowalinski—815111113
LMay 27 · 03:05M. Miastowski—14991462M. Nowalinski—12111112113
WMay 26 · 09:05M. Miastowski—111313113M. Nowalinski—7151191
M. Miastowski10
WAug 30 · 14:35M. Nowalinski1.83511713112M. Miastowski1.831141111133LAug 30 · 13:20M. Miastowski2.3871120T. Spanik1.531113113LAug 30 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.5711119113M. Miastowski2.25741191LAug 30 · 10:50M. Gawlas3.001112113M. Miastowski1.3681090LAug 30 · 09:20A. Daniel2.2091111113M. Miastowski1.61116561WAug 30 · 07:45M. Miastowski2.10211911113M. Jadczyk1.6711611982WAug 30 · 05:15M. Miastowski2.251114113T. Spanik1.5761270LAug 30 · 04:10M. Gawlas3.4011111011113M. Miastowski1.3013912892LAug 30 · 03:25M. Miastowski1.676860A. Daniel2.101111113LAug 29 · 14:10M. Nowalinski2.2014117143M. Miastowski1.6112911131
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LAug 30 · 14:35M. Nowalinski1.83511713112M. Miastowski1.831141111133WAug 29 · 14:10M. Nowalinski2.2014117143M. Miastowski1.6112911131
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