TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13042193
Played Aug 30Finished
Michal Gawlas
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11131191012118119
Maksymilian Miastowski
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:22 and never touched — 75.1% is still 75.1%
Graded at full timeMaksymilian Miastowski to win
75.1%
75.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Gawlas above · Maksymilian Miastowski below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 105 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Maksymilian Miastowski at 75.1%
105 points played in total.
H2H Michal Gawlas 1–1 Maksymilian Miastowski Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:22What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Miastowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Gawlas 1760 vs Miastowski 1762
Miastowski
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gawlas 40% vs Miastowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gawlas 40% vs Miastowski 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gawlas +1 · Miastowski -3
Miastowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Miastowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Miastowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGawlas 3.40 / Miastowski 1.30
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Miastowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13042193
Gawlas3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog29% won 12 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back12% 3 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Miastowski1.30
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 143 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it97% 57 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it78% 95 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeGawlas1wins
AwayMiastowski1wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricGawlasMiastowskiG − MBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match46.048.0−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGawlasMiastowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime21 / 61 vs 577 / 111534.4%51.8%21 / 61 vs 577 / 1115Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.539.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MiastowskiGawlas 3.40/Miastowski 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.1%
Miastowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Gawlas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 29 · 09:00M. Gawlas—1311910113M. Miastowski—117111292
LAug 29 · 06:30M. Gawlas—101141122M. Miastowski—125117113
M. Gawlas10
WAug 30 · 14:10M. Gawlas3.001211173T. Spanik1.36109150WAug 30 · 12:30A. Daniel1.6178130M. Gawlas2.201111153WAug 30 · 11:40M. Nowalinski1.5781191182M. Gawlas2.25116117113WAug 30 · 10:50M. Gawlas3.001112113M. Miastowski1.3681090LAug 30 · 09:40M. Gawlas3.2541111492M. Jadczyk1.33112811113LAug 30 · 08:30M. Gawlas2.2011940A. Daniel1.611311113WAug 30 · 06:55M. Gawlas3.001111113M. Jadczyk1.369750LAug 30 · 05:40M. Gawlas2.38591181M. Nowalinski1.5311119113WAug 30 · 03:00M. Gawlas3.501111113T. Spanik1.284420LAug 29 · 14:35M. Gawlas2.7511111071T. Spanik1.4061312113
M. Miastowski10
WAug 30 · 14:35M. Nowalinski1.83511713112M. Miastowski1.831141111133LAug 30 · 13:20M. Miastowski2.3871120T. Spanik1.531113113LAug 30 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.5711119113M. Miastowski2.25741191LAug 30 · 10:50M. Gawlas3.001112113M. Miastowski1.3681090LAug 30 · 09:20A. Daniel2.2091111113M. Miastowski1.61116561WAug 30 · 07:45M. Miastowski2.10211911113M. Jadczyk1.6711611982WAug 30 · 06:30M. Miastowski1.5711512113M. Nowalinski2.259111081WAug 30 · 05:15M. Miastowski2.251114113T. Spanik1.5761270LAug 30 · 03:25M. Miastowski1.676860A. Daniel2.101111113LAug 29 · 14:10M. Nowalinski2.2014117143M. Miastowski1.6112911131
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