TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13042257
Played Aug 30Finished
Michal Gawlas
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113911411––––
Artur Daniel
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:37 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeArtur Daniel to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Gawlas above · Artur Daniel below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 59 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Artur Daniel at 56.5%
59 points played in total.
H2H Michal Gawlas 4–2 Artur Daniel Artur Daniel has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:37What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Daniel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Gawlas
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gawlas 1770 vs Daniel 1796
Daniel
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gawlas 60% vs Daniel 40%
Gawlas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gawlas 60% vs Daniel 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gawlas +1 · Daniel +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Daniel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Daniel form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGawlas 2.20 / Daniel 1.61
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Daniel)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13042257
Gawlas2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog31% won 16 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back10% 3 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Daniel1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 215 of 351
Up 2–0, closes it96% 108 of 113
Up 1–0, closes it78% 165 of 213
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeGawlas4wins
AwayDaniel2wins
1 of 6 to a deciderGawlas leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGawlas100%3 of 3
AwayDaniel66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gawlas3Daniel3n = 6split evenly
S2Gawlas5Daniel1n = 6Gawlas took 5 of 6
S3Gawlas5Daniel1n = 6Gawlas took 5 of 6
S4Gawlas0Daniel3n = 3Daniel took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home350%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricGawlasDanielG − DBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match36.730.2+6.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGawlasDanielBasisWin rate · lifetime21 / 61 vs 780 / 146034.4%53.4%21 / 61 vs 780 / 1460Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanielGawlas 2.20/Daniel 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Daniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Daniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LFeb 22 · 11:25M. Gawlas—361171A. Daniel—11119113
WFeb 22 · 07:40M. Gawlas—1111163A. Daniel—48140
WFeb 21 · 07:10M. Gawlas—1111133A. Daniel—68110
WJan 25 · 13:25M. Gawlas—1111113A. Daniel—2110
LJan 25 · 07:40M. Gawlas—812871A. Daniel—111011113
WJan 24 · 05:20M. Gawlas—1113116113A. Daniel—131121142
M. Gawlas10
WAug 30 · 14:10M. Gawlas3.001211173T. Spanik1.36109150WAug 30 · 12:30A. Daniel1.6178130M. Gawlas2.201111153WAug 30 · 11:40M. Nowalinski1.5781191182M. Gawlas2.25116117113WAug 30 · 10:50M. Gawlas3.001112113M. Miastowski1.3681090LAug 30 · 09:40M. Gawlas3.2541111492M. Jadczyk1.33112811113WAug 30 · 06:55M. Gawlas3.001111113M. Jadczyk1.369750LAug 30 · 05:40M. Gawlas2.38591181M. Nowalinski1.5311119113WAug 30 · 04:10M. Gawlas3.4011111011113M. Miastowski1.3013912892WAug 30 · 03:00M. Gawlas3.501111113T. Spanik1.284420LAug 29 · 14:35M. Gawlas2.7511111071T. Spanik1.4061312113
A. Daniel10
WSep 4 · 21:00A. Daniel2.10581211113K. Kolodziej1.67111110592LSep 4 · 19:40A. Daniel1.3311114992T. Filbrandt3.25651111113LSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel1.30123561M. Kolek3.40101111113WSep 4 · 17:20P. Jendrzejewski2.0071141182A. Daniel1.73119119113WSep 4 · 16:30A. Daniel1.501271113113M. Rutkowski2.50141141192WSep 4 · 14:35A. Daniel3.0011611113S. Dosz1.33411681WSep 4 · 13:00A. Daniel1.3511711113G. Poliniewicz2.85611591WSep 4 · 11:45A. Daniel1.80711911113K. Wloczko1.9011911682LSep 4 · 10:05A. Daniel1.3711911982J. Zochniak2.75611911113LAug 30 · 12:30A. Daniel1.6178130M. Gawlas2.201111153
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