TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13035746
Played Aug 29Finished
Michal Gawlas
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11611131012711––
Tibor Spanik
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:50 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Gawlas above · Tibor Spanik below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 81 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Tibor Spanik at 66.3%
81 points played in total.
H2H Michal Gawlas 1–2 Tibor Spanik Michal Gawlas has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:50What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Spanik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gawlas 1720 vs Spanik 1942
Spanik
Correct
both rated, 223 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gawlas 60% vs Spanik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gawlas 40% vs Spanik 60%
Spanik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gawlas +1 · Spanik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Spanik) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Spanik form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGawlas 2.75 / Spanik 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Spanik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13035746
Gawlas2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog29% won 12 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back12% 3 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Spanik1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 137 of 237
Up 2–0, closes it92% 66 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it75% 100 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeGawlas1wins
AwaySpanik2wins
Spanik leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gawlas1Spanik2n = 3Spanik took 2 of 3
S2Gawlas2Spanik1n = 3Gawlas took 2 of 3
S3Gawlas1Spanik2n = 3Spanik took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricGawlasSpanikG − SBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match28.031.0−3.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGawlasSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime20 / 60 vs 216 / 38433.3%56.3%20 / 60 vs 216 / 384Avg sets wonper match1.72.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikGawlas 2.75/Spanik 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Spanik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 29 · 03:45M. Gawlas—611941T. Spanik—11711113
WMay 23 · 12:50M. Gawlas—1111113T. Spanik—6650
LMay 23 · 05:25M. Gawlas—51240T. Spanik—1114113
M. Gawlas10
WAug 30 · 14:10M. Gawlas3.001211173T. Spanik1.36109150WAug 30 · 12:30A. Daniel1.6178130M. Gawlas2.201111153WAug 30 · 11:40M. Nowalinski1.5781191182M. Gawlas2.25116117113WAug 30 · 10:50M. Gawlas3.001112113M. Miastowski1.3681090LAug 30 · 09:40M. Gawlas3.2541111492M. Jadczyk1.33112811113LAug 30 · 08:30M. Gawlas2.2011940A. Daniel1.611311113WAug 30 · 06:55M. Gawlas3.001111113M. Jadczyk1.369750LAug 30 · 05:40M. Gawlas2.38591181M. Nowalinski1.5311119113WAug 30 · 04:10M. Gawlas3.4011111011113M. Miastowski1.3013912892WAug 30 · 03:00M. Gawlas3.501111113T. Spanik1.284420
T. Spanik10
WAug 31 · 13:45T. Spanik1.61101111113M. Jadczyk2.20123431LAug 31 · 12:30T. Spanik1.831110111562K. Petas1.831312613113WAug 31 · 11:15T. Spanik1.731111113K. Wloczko2.007540LAug 31 · 10:00J. Kosowski1.671110711113T. Spanik2.1081211942LAug 31 · 09:20T. Spanik1.5711771182K. Strowski2.25511114113WAug 31 · 08:30T. Spanik1.73811911113K. Petas2.0011811762LAug 31 · 06:55T. Spanik1.7371111161M. Jadczyk2.0011135183LAug 31 · 05:40T. Spanik2.25511661J. Kosowski1.5711511113LAug 30 · 14:10M. Gawlas3.001211173T. Spanik1.36109150LAug 30 · 03:00M. Gawlas3.501111113T. Spanik1.284420
Upcoming Matches
M. Gawlas
Nothing scheduled
T. Spanik
Sep 8 · 03:45T. Spanik1.73A. Wiecek2.00—Sep 8 · 04:30T. Spanik2.75P. David1.40—Sep 8 · 06:05T. Spanik1.91M. Olejnik1.80—Sep 8 · 06:55T. Spanik2.00J. Kosowski1.73—Sep 8 · 07:45T. Spanik2.63J. Folwarski1.44—Sep 8 · 09:00T. Spanik1.61K. Kolodziej2.20—Sep 8 · 10:00T. Spanik2.00J. Kosowski1.73—Sep 8 · 11:40T. Spanik1.73K. Wloczko2.00—Sep 8 · 12:55T. Spanik1.91M. Olejnik1.80—Sep 8 · 14:35T. Spanik1.73A. Wiecek2.00—
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