TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13042000
Played Aug 30Finished
Michal Gawlas
Home
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114114112––––
Tibor Spanik
Away
1.29
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:43 and never touched — 75.9% is still 75.9%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
75.9%
75.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Gawlas above · Tibor Spanik below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 43 set 3, 11-2 — our read held Tibor Spanik at 75.9%
43 points played in total.
H2H Michal Gawlas 1–2 Tibor Spanik Michal Gawlas has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:43What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Spanik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gawlas 1720 vs Spanik 1942
Spanik
Wrong
both rated, 223 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gawlas 60% vs Spanik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gawlas 40% vs Spanik 60%
Spanik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gawlas +1 · Spanik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Spanik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Spanik form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGawlas 3.50 / Spanik 1.28
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Spanik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13042000
Gawlas3.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog29% won 12 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back12% 3 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Spanik1.28
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 137 of 237
Up 2–0, closes it92% 66 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it75% 100 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeGawlas1wins
AwaySpanik2wins
Spanik leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gawlas1Spanik2n = 3Spanik took 2 of 3
S2Gawlas2Spanik1n = 3Gawlas took 2 of 3
S3Gawlas1Spanik2n = 3Spanik took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricGawlasSpanikG − SBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match28.031.0−3.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGawlasSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime20 / 60 vs 216 / 38433.3%56.3%20 / 60 vs 216 / 384Avg sets wonper match1.72.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikGawlas 3.50/Spanik 1.28
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.9%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Gawlas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 29 · 03:45M. Gawlas—611941T. Spanik—11711113
WMay 23 · 12:50M. Gawlas—1111113T. Spanik—6650
LMay 23 · 05:25M. Gawlas—51240T. Spanik—1114113
M. Gawlas10
WAug 30 · 14:10M. Gawlas3.001211173T. Spanik1.36109150WAug 30 · 12:30A. Daniel1.6178130M. Gawlas2.201111153WAug 30 · 11:40M. Nowalinski1.5781191182M. Gawlas2.25116117113WAug 30 · 10:50M. Gawlas3.001112113M. Miastowski1.3681090LAug 30 · 09:40M. Gawlas3.2541111492M. Jadczyk1.33112811113LAug 30 · 08:30M. Gawlas2.2011940A. Daniel1.611311113WAug 30 · 06:55M. Gawlas3.001111113M. Jadczyk1.369750LAug 30 · 05:40M. Gawlas2.38591181M. Nowalinski1.5311119113WAug 30 · 04:10M. Gawlas3.4011111011113M. Miastowski1.3013912892LAug 29 · 14:35M. Gawlas2.7511111071T. Spanik1.4061312113
T. Spanik10
WAug 31 · 13:45T. Spanik1.61101111113M. Jadczyk2.20123431LAug 31 · 12:30T. Spanik1.831110111562K. Petas1.831312613113WAug 31 · 11:15T. Spanik1.731111113K. Wloczko2.007540LAug 31 · 10:00J. Kosowski1.671110711113T. Spanik2.1081211942LAug 31 · 09:20T. Spanik1.5711771182K. Strowski2.25511114113WAug 31 · 08:30T. Spanik1.73811911113K. Petas2.0011811762LAug 31 · 06:55T. Spanik1.7371111161M. Jadczyk2.0011135183LAug 31 · 05:40T. Spanik2.25511661J. Kosowski1.5711511113LAug 30 · 14:10M. Gawlas3.001211173T. Spanik1.36109150WAug 29 · 14:35M. Gawlas2.7511111071T. Spanik1.4061312113
Upcoming Matches
M. Gawlas
Nothing scheduled
T. Spanik
Sep 8 · 03:45T. Spanik1.73A. Wiecek2.00—Sep 8 · 04:30T. Spanik2.75P. David1.40—Sep 8 · 06:05T. Spanik1.91M. Olejnik1.80—Sep 8 · 06:55T. Spanik2.00J. Kosowski1.73—Sep 8 · 07:45T. Spanik—J. Folwarski——Sep 8 · 09:00T. Spanik—K. Kolodziej——Sep 8 · 10:00T. Spanik2.00J. Kosowski1.73—Sep 8 · 11:40T. Spanik1.73K. Wloczko2.00—Sep 8 · 12:55T. Spanik1.91M. Olejnik1.80—Sep 8 · 14:35T. Spanik1.73A. Wiecek2.00—
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