TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13042260
Played Aug 30Finished
Michal Gawlas
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181210119––––
Maksymilian Miastowski
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:35 and never touched — 75.1% is still 75.1%
Graded at full timeMaksymilian Miastowski to win
75.1%
75.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Gawlas above · Maksymilian Miastowski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 61 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Maksymilian Miastowski at 75.1%
61 points played in total.
H2H Michal Gawlas 2–1 Maksymilian Miastowski Maksymilian Miastowski has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:35What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Miastowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gawlas 1767 vs Miastowski 1800
Miastowski
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gawlas 40% vs Miastowski 60%
Miastowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gawlas 40% vs Miastowski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gawlas -2 · Miastowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Miastowski) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Miastowski form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGawlas 3.00 / Miastowski 1.36
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Miastowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13042260
Gawlas3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 16 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back10% 3 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Miastowski1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 137 of 238
Up 2–0, closes it96% 54 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it77% 91 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeGawlas2wins
AwayMiastowski1wins
3 of 3 to a deciderGawlas leads 2–1, and 3 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gawlas1Miastowski2n = 3Miastowski took 2 of 3
S2Gawlas3Miastowski0n = 3Gawlas took 3 of 3
S3Gawlas0Miastowski3n = 3Miastowski took 3 of 3
S4Gawlas2Miastowski1n = 3Gawlas took 2 of 3
S5Gawlas2Miastowski1n = 3Gawlas took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home267%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricGawlasMiastowskiG − MBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match48.749.0−0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGawlasMiastowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime20 / 61 vs 580 / 112032.8%51.8%20 / 61 vs 580 / 1120Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.439.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MiastowskiGawlas 3.00/Miastowski 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.6%
Miastowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Gawlas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 30 · 04:10M. Gawlas—11111011113M. Miastowski—13912892
WAug 29 · 09:00M. Gawlas—1311910113M. Miastowski—117111292
LAug 29 · 06:30M. Gawlas—101141122M. Miastowski—125117113
M. Gawlas10
WAug 30 · 14:10M. Gawlas3.001211173T. Spanik1.36109150WAug 30 · 12:30A. Daniel1.6178130M. Gawlas2.201111153WAug 30 · 11:40M. Nowalinski1.5781191182M. Gawlas2.25116117113LAug 30 · 09:40M. Gawlas3.2541111492M. Jadczyk1.33112811113LAug 30 · 08:30M. Gawlas2.2011940A. Daniel1.611311113WAug 30 · 06:55M. Gawlas3.001111113M. Jadczyk1.369750LAug 30 · 05:40M. Gawlas2.38591181M. Nowalinski1.5311119113WAug 30 · 04:10M. Gawlas3.4011111011113M. Miastowski1.3013912892WAug 30 · 03:00M. Gawlas3.501111113T. Spanik1.284420LAug 29 · 14:35M. Gawlas2.7511111071T. Spanik1.4061312113
M. Miastowski10
WAug 30 · 14:35M. Nowalinski1.83511713112M. Miastowski1.831141111133LAug 30 · 13:20M. Miastowski2.3871120T. Spanik1.531113113LAug 30 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.5711119113M. Miastowski2.25741191LAug 30 · 09:20A. Daniel2.2091111113M. Miastowski1.61116561WAug 30 · 07:45M. Miastowski2.10211911113M. Jadczyk1.6711611982WAug 30 · 06:30M. Miastowski1.5711512113M. Nowalinski2.259111081WAug 30 · 05:15M. Miastowski2.251114113T. Spanik1.5761270LAug 30 · 04:10M. Gawlas3.4011111011113M. Miastowski1.3013912892LAug 30 · 03:25M. Miastowski1.676860A. Daniel2.101111113LAug 29 · 14:10M. Nowalinski2.2014117143M. Miastowski1.6112911131
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