TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13041055
Played Aug 30Finished
Maksymilian Miastowski
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811611––––
Artur Daniel
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeArtur Daniel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksymilian Miastowski above · Artur Daniel below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 53 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Artur Daniel at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Maksymilian Miastowski 20–14 Artur Daniel Artur Daniel has won 14 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:43What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Miastowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-14 in 34
Miastowski
Wrong
gap of 6 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Miastowski 1792 vs Daniel 1759
Miastowski
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Miastowski 40% vs Daniel 60%
Daniel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Miastowski 30% vs Daniel 50%
Daniel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Miastowski -2 · Daniel -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Miastowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Daniel form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMiastowski 1.67 / Daniel 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Miastowski)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13041055
Miastowski1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 143 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it97% 57 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it78% 95 of 122
Daniel2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 76 of 226
Down 0–1, comes back19% 25 of 130
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMiastowski6wins
AwayDaniel4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMiastowski leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMiastowski75%3 of 4
AwayDaniel50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Miastowski4Daniel6n = 10Daniel took 6 of 10
S2Miastowski6Daniel4n = 10Miastowski took 6 of 10
S3Miastowski7Daniel3n = 10Miastowski took 7 of 10
S4Miastowski5Daniel3n = 8Miastowski took 5 of 8
S5Miastowski1Daniel2n = 3Daniel took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMiastowskiDanielM − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.438.1+1.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMiastowskiDanielBasisWin rate · lifetime577 / 1115 vs 778 / 145651.8%53.4%577 / 1115 vs 778 / 1456Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MiastowskiMiastowski 1.67/Daniel 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59%
Miastowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Daniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 3 · 15:30M. Miastowski—118116122A. Daniel—711511143
LMay 1 · 07:50M. Miastowski—35100A. Daniel—1111123
WApr 9 · 14:50M. Miastowski—611139113A. Daniel—115111182
WMar 25 · 14:10M. Miastowski—1111113A. Daniel—7970
WMar 25 · 06:00M. Miastowski—51111113A. Daniel—114991
WFeb 25 · 10:30M. Miastowski—11611113A. Daniel—911641
WSep 24 · 06:35M. Miastowski—1118783A. Daniel—9161171
LSep 6 · 10:25M. Miastowski—711711122A. Daniel—115118143
LSep 6 · 05:05M. Miastowski—7611101A. Daniel—11117123
WAug 22 · 12:20M. Miastowski—91111113A. Daniel—1158101
M. Miastowski10
WAug 30 · 14:35M. Nowalinski1.83511713112M. Miastowski1.831141111133LAug 30 · 13:20M. Miastowski2.3871120T. Spanik1.531113113LAug 30 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.5711119113M. Miastowski2.25741191LAug 30 · 10:50M. Gawlas3.001112113M. Miastowski1.3681090LAug 30 · 09:20A. Daniel2.2091111113M. Miastowski1.61116561WAug 30 · 07:45M. Miastowski2.10211911113M. Jadczyk1.6711611982WAug 30 · 06:30M. Miastowski1.5711512113M. Nowalinski2.259111081WAug 30 · 05:15M. Miastowski2.251114113T. Spanik1.5761270LAug 30 · 04:10M. Gawlas3.4011111011113M. Miastowski1.3013912892LAug 29 · 14:10M. Nowalinski2.2014117143M. Miastowski1.6112911131
A. Daniel10
WSep 4 · 21:00A. Daniel2.10581211113K. Kolodziej1.67111110592LSep 4 · 19:40A. Daniel1.3311114992T. Filbrandt3.25651111113LSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel1.30123561M. Kolek3.40101111113WSep 4 · 17:20P. Jendrzejewski2.0071141182A. Daniel1.73119119113WSep 4 · 16:30A. Daniel1.501271113113M. Rutkowski2.50141141192WSep 4 · 14:35A. Daniel3.0011611113S. Dosz1.33411681WSep 4 · 13:00A. Daniel1.3511711113G. Poliniewicz2.85611591WSep 4 · 11:45A. Daniel1.80711911113K. Wloczko1.9011911682LSep 4 · 10:05A. Daniel1.3711911982J. Zochniak2.75611911113WAug 30 · 09:20A. Daniel2.2091111113M. Miastowski1.61116561
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