TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13035753
Played Aug 29Finished
Maciej Nowalinski
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
14121197111413––
Maksymilian Miastowski
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaksymilian Miastowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingMaciej Nowalinski above · Maksymilian Miastowski below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 14-13
Point 91 set 4, 14-13 — our read held Maksymilian Miastowski at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Nowalinski 33–35 Maksymilian Miastowski Maciej Nowalinski has won 33 of their 68 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:50What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Miastowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-35 in 68
Miastowski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 68, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowalinski 1706 vs Miastowski 1870
Miastowski
Wrong
both rated, 164 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowalinski 40% vs Miastowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowalinski 40% vs Miastowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowalinski -1 · Miastowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Miastowski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Miastowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowalinski 2.20 / Miastowski 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Miastowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13035753
Nowalinski2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 134 of 362
Down 0–1, comes back18% 38 of 208
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 96
Miastowski1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 143 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it97% 57 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it78% 95 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowalinski6wins
AwayMiastowski4wins
7 of 10 to a deciderNowalinski leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowalinski50%2 of 4
AwayMiastowski33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowalinski4Miastowski6n = 10Miastowski took 6 of 10
S2Nowalinski6Miastowski4n = 10Nowalinski took 6 of 10
S3Nowalinski6Miastowski4n = 10Nowalinski took 6 of 10
S4Nowalinski5Miastowski5n = 10split evenly
S5Nowalinski4Miastowski3n = 7Nowalinski took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowalinskiMiastowskiN − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match47.346.9+0.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowalinskiMiastowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime833 / 1727 vs 577 / 111348.2%51.8%833 / 1727 vs 577 / 1113Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MiastowskiNowalinski 2.20/Miastowski 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Miastowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nowalinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 9 · 14:35M. Nowalinski—111111782M. Miastowski—135811113
WAug 9 · 06:30M. Nowalinski—1211124113M. Miastowski—1013101172
WMay 27 · 12:45M. Nowalinski—815111113M. Miastowski—111311582
WMay 27 · 03:05M. Nowalinski—12111112113M. Miastowski—14991462
LMay 26 · 09:05M. Nowalinski—7151191M. Miastowski—111313113
LMay 26 · 06:35M. Nowalinski—11891172M. Miastowski—811116113
WMay 25 · 13:40M. Nowalinski—81111113M. Miastowski—118791
WMay 25 · 04:00M. Nowalinski—61114113M. Miastowski—1181291
LMay 22 · 07:20M. Nowalinski—118121172M. Miastowski—811145113
WMay 2 · 06:15M. Nowalinski—1181111113M. Miastowski—91191392
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161LSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841
M. Miastowski10
WAug 30 · 14:35M. Nowalinski1.83511713112M. Miastowski1.831141111133LAug 30 · 13:20M. Miastowski2.3871120T. Spanik1.531113113LAug 30 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.5711119113M. Miastowski2.25741191LAug 30 · 10:50M. Gawlas3.001112113M. Miastowski1.3681090LAug 30 · 09:20A. Daniel2.2091111113M. Miastowski1.61116561WAug 30 · 07:45M. Miastowski2.10211911113M. Jadczyk1.6711611982WAug 30 · 06:30M. Miastowski1.5711512113M. Nowalinski2.259111081WAug 30 · 05:15M. Miastowski2.251114113T. Spanik1.5761270LAug 30 · 04:10M. Gawlas3.4011111011113M. Miastowski1.3013912892LAug 30 · 03:25M. Miastowski1.676860A. Daniel2.101111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.