TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13042244
Played Aug 30Finished
Maciej Nowalinski
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
51111471113111113
Maksymilian Miastowski
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:28 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeMaksymilian Miastowski to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaciej Nowalinski above · Maksymilian Miastowski below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 97 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Maksymilian Miastowski at 60.5%
97 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Nowalinski 35–38 Maksymilian Miastowski Maciej Nowalinski has won 35 of their 73 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:28What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Miastowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-38 in 73
Miastowski
Correct
gap of 3 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowalinski 1772 vs Miastowski 1760
Nowalinski
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowalinski 40% vs Miastowski 20%
Nowalinski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowalinski 50% vs Miastowski 30%
Nowalinski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowalinski -2 · Miastowski -4
Miastowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Miastowski) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Miastowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowalinski 1.83 / Miastowski 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Miastowski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13042244
Nowalinski1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Miastowski1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowalinski5wins
AwayMiastowski5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowalinski66.7%2 of 3
AwayMiastowski57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowalinski3Miastowski7n = 10Miastowski took 7 of 10
S2Nowalinski8Miastowski2n = 10Nowalinski took 8 of 10
S3Nowalinski5Miastowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Nowalinski4Miastowski6n = 10Miastowski took 6 of 10
S5Nowalinski3Miastowski3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowalinskiMiastowskiN − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match45.446.8−1.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowalinskiMiastowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime838 / 1738 vs 581 / 112448.2%51.7%838 / 1738 vs 581 / 1124Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MiastowskiNowalinski 1.83/Miastowski 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Miastowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Miastowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 14:35M. Nowalinski—511713112M. Miastowski—1141111133
LAug 30 · 06:30M. Nowalinski—9111081M. Miastowski—11512113
WAug 29 · 14:10M. Nowalinski—14117143M. Miastowski—12911131
WAug 29 · 05:15M. Nowalinski—101111133M. Miastowski—1287111
LAug 23 · 09:40M. Nowalinski—11411182M. Miastowski—911711113
LAug 9 · 14:35M. Nowalinski—111111782M. Miastowski—135811113
WAug 9 · 06:30M. Nowalinski—1211124113M. Miastowski—1013101172
WMay 27 · 12:45M. Nowalinski—815111113M. Miastowski—111311582
WMay 27 · 03:05M. Nowalinski—12111112113M. Miastowski—14991462
LMay 26 · 09:05M. Nowalinski—7151191M. Miastowski—111313113
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161LSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841
M. Miastowski10
LAug 30 · 13:20M. Miastowski2.3871120T. Spanik1.531113113LAug 30 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.5711119113M. Miastowski2.25741191LAug 30 · 10:50M. Gawlas3.001112113M. Miastowski1.3681090LAug 30 · 09:20A. Daniel2.2091111113M. Miastowski1.61116561WAug 30 · 07:45M. Miastowski2.10211911113M. Jadczyk1.6711611982WAug 30 · 06:30M. Miastowski1.5711512113M. Nowalinski2.259111081WAug 30 · 05:15M. Miastowski2.251114113T. Spanik1.5761270LAug 30 · 04:10M. Gawlas3.4011111011113M. Miastowski1.3013912892LAug 30 · 03:25M. Miastowski1.676860A. Daniel2.101111113LAug 29 · 14:10M. Nowalinski2.2014117143M. Miastowski1.6112911131
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