TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13042045
Played Aug 30Finished
Artur Daniel
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911116115116––
Maksymilian Miastowski
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:13 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeMaksymilian Miastowski to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingArtur Daniel above · Maksymilian Miastowski below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 70 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Maksymilian Miastowski at 59.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Artur Daniel 14–20 Maksymilian Miastowski Artur Daniel has won 14 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:13What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Miastowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-20 in 34
Miastowski
Wrong
gap of 6 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Daniel 1809 vs Miastowski 1812
Miastowski
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Daniel 60% vs Miastowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Daniel 60% vs Miastowski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Daniel +2 · Miastowski +3
Miastowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Miastowski) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Daniel form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDaniel 2.20 / Miastowski 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Miastowski)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13042045
Daniel2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 77 of 227
Down 0–1, comes back19% 25 of 130
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 66
Miastowski1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 137 of 238
Up 2–0, closes it96% 54 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it77% 91 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDaniel4wins
AwayMiastowski6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMiastowski leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDaniel50%3 of 6
AwayMiastowski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Daniel6Miastowski4n = 10Daniel took 6 of 10
S2Daniel4Miastowski6n = 10Miastowski took 6 of 10
S3Daniel3Miastowski7n = 10Miastowski took 7 of 10
S4Daniel3Miastowski5n = 8Miastowski took 5 of 8
S5Daniel2Miastowski1n = 3Daniel took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDanielMiastowskiD − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.139.4−1.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanielMiastowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime780 / 1460 vs 580 / 111953.4%51.8%780 / 1460 vs 580 / 1119Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.939.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MiastowskiDaniel 2.20/Miastowski 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
Miastowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Daniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 3 · 15:30A. Daniel—711511143M. Miastowski—118116122
WMay 1 · 07:50A. Daniel—1111123M. Miastowski—35100
LApr 9 · 14:50A. Daniel—115111182M. Miastowski—611139113
LMar 25 · 14:10A. Daniel—7970M. Miastowski—1111113
LMar 25 · 06:00A. Daniel—114991M. Miastowski—51111113
LFeb 25 · 10:30A. Daniel—911641M. Miastowski—11611113
LSep 24 · 06:35A. Daniel—9161171M. Miastowski—1118783
WSep 6 · 10:25A. Daniel—115118143M. Miastowski—711711122
WSep 6 · 05:05A. Daniel—11117123M. Miastowski—7611101
LAug 22 · 12:20A. Daniel—1158101M. Miastowski—91111113
A. Daniel10
WSep 4 · 21:00A. Daniel2.10581211113K. Kolodziej1.67111110592LSep 4 · 19:40A. Daniel1.3311114992T. Filbrandt3.25651111113LSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel1.30123561M. Kolek3.40101111113WSep 4 · 17:20P. Jendrzejewski2.0071141182A. Daniel1.73119119113WSep 4 · 16:30A. Daniel1.501271113113M. Rutkowski2.50141141192WSep 4 · 14:35A. Daniel3.0011611113S. Dosz1.33411681WSep 4 · 13:00A. Daniel1.3511711113G. Poliniewicz2.85611591WSep 4 · 11:45A. Daniel1.80711911113K. Wloczko1.9011911682LSep 4 · 10:05A. Daniel1.3711911982J. Zochniak2.75611911113LSep 4 · 09:00A. Daniel1.42114711112K. Wisniewski2.60311119133
M. Miastowski10
WAug 30 · 14:35M. Nowalinski1.83511713112M. Miastowski1.831141111133LAug 30 · 13:20M. Miastowski2.3871120T. Spanik1.531113113LAug 30 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.5711119113M. Miastowski2.25741191LAug 30 · 10:50M. Gawlas3.001112113M. Miastowski1.3681090WAug 30 · 07:45M. Miastowski2.10211911113M. Jadczyk1.6711611982WAug 30 · 06:30M. Miastowski1.5711512113M. Nowalinski2.259111081WAug 30 · 05:15M. Miastowski2.251114113T. Spanik1.5761270LAug 30 · 04:10M. Gawlas3.4011111011113M. Miastowski1.3013912892LAug 30 · 03:25M. Miastowski1.676860A. Daniel2.101111113LAug 29 · 14:10M. Nowalinski2.2014117143M. Miastowski1.6112911131
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.