TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13042198
Played Aug 30Finished
Maksymilian Miastowski
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
211116911119118
Marcin Jadczyk
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:23 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMaksymilian Miastowski above · Marcin Jadczyk below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 89 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 56.2%
89 points played in total.
H2H Maksymilian Miastowski 23–32 Marcin Jadczyk Maksymilian Miastowski has won 23 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:23What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Jadczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-32 in 55
Jadczyk
Wrong
gap of 9 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Miastowski 1760 vs Jadczyk 1914
Jadczyk
Wrong
both rated, 154 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Miastowski 40% vs Jadczyk 60%
Jadczyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Miastowski 40% vs Jadczyk 60%
Jadczyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Miastowski +2 · Jadczyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Jadczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMiastowski 2.10 / Jadczyk 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Jadczyk)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13042198
Miastowski2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 92 of 203
Down 0–1, comes back26% 29 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 62
Jadczyk1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite64% won 436 of 687
Up 2–0, closes it98% 223 of 228
Up 1–0, closes it83% 344 of 413
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMiastowski3wins
AwayJadczyk7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJadczyk leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMiastowski33.3%1 of 3
AwayJadczyk71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Miastowski3Jadczyk7n = 10Jadczyk took 7 of 10
S2Miastowski3Jadczyk7n = 10Jadczyk took 7 of 10
S3Miastowski5Jadczyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Miastowski5Jadczyk4n = 9Miastowski took 5 of 9
S5Miastowski1Jadczyk2n = 3Jadczyk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMiastowskiJadczykM − JBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.342.3−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMiastowskiJadczykBasisWin rate · lifetime581 / 1121 vs 969 / 165351.8%58.6%581 / 1121 vs 969 / 1653Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykMiastowski 2.10/Jadczyk 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Miastowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 12:05M. Miastowski—741191M. Jadczyk—11119113
WAug 30 · 07:45M. Miastowski—211911113M. Jadczyk—11611982
LAug 23 · 06:05M. Miastowski—111271192M. Jadczyk—714119113
WAug 11 · 06:55M. Miastowski—13811113M. Jadczyk—1111591
LAug 10 · 07:45M. Miastowski—15971162M. Jadczyk—1311116113
LAug 9 · 03:45M. Miastowski—1281181M. Jadczyk—14115113
LJun 10 · 11:35M. Miastowski—771181M. Jadczyk—11113113
LJun 9 · 13:15M. Miastowski—10118101M. Jadczyk—12711123
WJun 9 · 04:40M. Miastowski—111411143M. Jadczyk—13126121
LMay 26 · 03:55M. Miastowski—71090M. Jadczyk—1112113
M. Miastowski10
WAug 30 · 14:35M. Nowalinski1.83511713112M. Miastowski1.831141111133LAug 30 · 13:20M. Miastowski2.3871120T. Spanik1.531113113LAug 30 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.5711119113M. Miastowski2.25741191LAug 30 · 10:50M. Gawlas3.001112113M. Miastowski1.3681090LAug 30 · 09:20A. Daniel2.2091111113M. Miastowski1.61116561WAug 30 · 06:30M. Miastowski1.5711512113M. Nowalinski2.259111081WAug 30 · 05:15M. Miastowski2.251114113T. Spanik1.5761270LAug 30 · 04:10M. Gawlas3.4011111011113M. Miastowski1.3013912892LAug 30 · 03:25M. Miastowski1.676860A. Daniel2.101111113LAug 29 · 14:10M. Nowalinski2.2014117143M. Miastowski1.6112911131
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 7 · 07:45J. Kosowski1.8181111113M. Jadczyk1.86117871LSep 7 · 06:55S. Kolasa2.00131111113M. Jadczyk1.73156591WSep 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.141111510113G. Poliniewicz5.0079111282WSep 7 · 03:45P. David1.91117851M. Jadczyk1.8091111113WSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113LSep 4 · 14:10A. Grela2.10129147113M. Jadczyk1.671011121182LSep 4 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.44591191K. Kolodziej2.6311118113WSep 4 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.8311912133A. Dosz1.8381110111WSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113WAug 30 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.5711119113M. Miastowski2.25741191
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