TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13042233
Played Aug 30Finished
Michal Gawlas
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411112118411911
Marcin Jadczyk
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:36 and never touched — 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Gawlas above · Marcin Jadczyk below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 82 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 73.2%
82 points played in total.
H2H Michal Gawlas 4–8 Marcin Jadczyk Michal Gawlas has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:36What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Jadczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-8 in 12
Jadczyk
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gawlas 1846 vs Jadczyk 1904
Jadczyk
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gawlas 60% vs Jadczyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gawlas 50% vs Jadczyk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gawlas -1 · Jadczyk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Jadczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jadczyk form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGawlas 3.25 / Jadczyk 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Jadczyk)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13042233
Gawlas3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 16 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back10% 3 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Jadczyk1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite64% won 433 of 680
Up 2–0, closes it98% 224 of 229
Up 1–0, closes it84% 343 of 411
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGawlas2wins
AwayJadczyk8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderJadczyk leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGawlas66.7%2 of 3
AwayJadczyk100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gawlas3Jadczyk7n = 10Jadczyk took 7 of 10
S2Gawlas5Jadczyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Gawlas6Jadczyk4n = 10Gawlas took 6 of 10
S4Gawlas3Jadczyk5n = 8Jadczyk took 5 of 8
S5Gawlas1Jadczyk5n = 6Jadczyk took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGawlasJadczykG − JBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.744.1−4.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGawlasJadczykBasisWin rate · lifetime22 / 60 vs 961 / 164036.7%58.6%22 / 60 vs 961 / 1640Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykGawlas 3.25/Jadczyk 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.9%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 09:40M. Gawlas—41111492M. Jadczyk—112811113
WAug 30 · 06:55M. Gawlas—1111113M. Jadczyk—9750
LAug 16 · 12:05M. Gawlas—11791182M. Jadczyk—811118113
LAug 16 · 07:45M. Gawlas—61361192M. Jadczyk—1111115113
LAug 15 · 12:05M. Gawlas—912131192M. Jadczyk—1114119113
LFeb 22 · 14:15M. Gawlas—91114412M. Jadczyk—1181211113
LFeb 22 · 05:40M. Gawlas—8470M. Jadczyk—1111113
LFeb 21 · 11:45M. Gawlas—7137101M. Jadczyk—111111123
WJan 25 · 12:35M. Gawlas—1112115123M. Jadczyk—914511102
LJan 25 · 05:40M. Gawlas—5711111M. Jadczyk—11118133
M. Gawlas10
WAug 30 · 14:10M. Gawlas3.001211173T. Spanik1.36109150WAug 30 · 12:30A. Daniel1.6178130M. Gawlas2.201111153WAug 30 · 11:40M. Nowalinski1.5781191182M. Gawlas2.25116117113WAug 30 · 10:50M. Gawlas3.001112113M. Miastowski1.3681090LAug 30 · 08:30M. Gawlas2.2011940A. Daniel1.611311113WAug 30 · 06:55M. Gawlas3.001111113M. Jadczyk1.369750LAug 30 · 05:40M. Gawlas2.38591181M. Nowalinski1.5311119113WAug 30 · 04:10M. Gawlas3.4011111011113M. Miastowski1.3013912892WAug 30 · 03:00M. Gawlas3.501111113T. Spanik1.284420LAug 29 · 14:35M. Gawlas2.7511111071T. Spanik1.4061312113
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 7 · 07:45J. Kosowski1.8181111113M. Jadczyk1.86117871LSep 7 · 06:55S. Kolasa2.00131111113M. Jadczyk1.73156591WSep 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.141111510113G. Poliniewicz5.0079111282WSep 7 · 03:45P. David1.91117851M. Jadczyk1.8091111113WSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113LSep 4 · 14:10A. Grela2.10129147113M. Jadczyk1.671011121182LSep 4 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.44591191K. Kolodziej2.6311118113WSep 4 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.8311912133A. Dosz1.8381110111WSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113LAug 30 · 06:55M. Gawlas3.001111113M. Jadczyk1.369750
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