TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13042209
Played Aug 30Finished
Michal Gawlas
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511911119811––
Maciej Nowalinski
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:16 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeMaciej Nowalinski to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Gawlas above · Maciej Nowalinski below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 75 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Maciej Nowalinski at 62.5%
75 points played in total.
H2H Michal Gawlas 1–3 Maciej Nowalinski Michal Gawlas has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:16What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Nowalinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Nowalinski
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gawlas 1749 vs Nowalinski 1797
Nowalinski
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gawlas 60% vs Nowalinski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gawlas 50% vs Nowalinski 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gawlas +2 · Nowalinski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Nowalinski) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gawlas form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGawlas 2.38 / Nowalinski 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Nowalinski)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13042209
Gawlas2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 16 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back10% 3 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Nowalinski1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 197 of 324
Up 2–0, closes it100% 65 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it83% 139 of 168
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeGawlas1wins
AwayNowalinski3wins
3 of 4 to a deciderNowalinski leads 3–1, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGawlas33.3%1 of 3
AwayNowalinskin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gawlas3Nowalinski1n = 4Gawlas took 3 of 4
S2Gawlas1Nowalinski3n = 4Nowalinski took 3 of 4
S3Gawlas1Nowalinski3n = 4Nowalinski took 3 of 4
S4Gawlas2Nowalinski2n = 4split evenly
S5Gawlas1Nowalinski2n = 3Nowalinski took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricGawlasNowalinskiG − NBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match42.842.2+0.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGawlasNowalinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime22 / 61 vs 836 / 173136.1%48.3%22 / 61 vs 836 / 1731Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NowalinskiGawlas 2.38/Nowalinski 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Nowalinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nowalinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LApr 26 · 21:35M. Gawlas—119951M. Nowalinski—71111113
WApr 25 · 13:40M. Gawlas—119811113M. Nowalinski—71111582
LJan 24 · 13:00M. Gawlas—11911252M. Nowalinski—511511113
LJan 24 · 10:35M. Gawlas—101191182M. Nowalinski—125115113
M. Gawlas10
WAug 30 · 14:10M. Gawlas3.001211173T. Spanik1.36109150WAug 30 · 12:30A. Daniel1.6178130M. Gawlas2.201111153WAug 30 · 11:40M. Nowalinski1.5781191182M. Gawlas2.25116117113WAug 30 · 10:50M. Gawlas3.001112113M. Miastowski1.3681090LAug 30 · 09:40M. Gawlas3.2541111492M. Jadczyk1.33112811113LAug 30 · 08:30M. Gawlas2.2011940A. Daniel1.611311113WAug 30 · 06:55M. Gawlas3.001111113M. Jadczyk1.369750WAug 30 · 04:10M. Gawlas3.4011111011113M. Miastowski1.3013912892WAug 30 · 03:00M. Gawlas3.501111113T. Spanik1.284420LAug 29 · 14:35M. Gawlas2.7511111071T. Spanik1.4061312113
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161LAug 30 · 11:40M. Nowalinski1.5781191182M. Gawlas2.25116117113
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