TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13042210
Played Aug 30Finished
Maciej Nowalinski
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811116911117811
Michal Gawlas
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:17 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeMaciej Nowalinski to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMaciej Nowalinski above · Michal Gawlas below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 93 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Maciej Nowalinski at 62.5%
93 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Nowalinski 3–1 Michal Gawlas Michal Gawlas has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:17What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Nowalinski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Nowalinski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowalinski 1793 vs Gawlas 1806
Gawlas
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowalinski 60% vs Gawlas 40%
Nowalinski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowalinski 60% vs Gawlas 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowalinski +2 · Gawlas +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Nowalinski) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowalinski 1.57 / Gawlas 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Nowalinski)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13042210
Nowalinski1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 197 of 324
Up 2–0, closes it100% 65 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it83% 139 of 168
Gawlas2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 16 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back10% 3 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeNowalinski3wins
AwayGawlas1wins
3 of 4 to a deciderNowalinski leads 3–1, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowalinskin = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayGawlas33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowalinski1Gawlas3n = 4Gawlas took 3 of 4
S2Nowalinski3Gawlas1n = 4Nowalinski took 3 of 4
S3Nowalinski3Gawlas1n = 4Nowalinski took 3 of 4
S4Nowalinski2Gawlas2n = 4split evenly
S5Nowalinski2Gawlas1n = 3Nowalinski took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricNowalinskiGawlasN − GBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match42.242.8−0.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowalinskiGawlasBasisWin rate · lifetime838 / 1736 vs 22 / 6148.3%36.1%838 / 1736 vs 22 / 61Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NowalinskiNowalinski 1.57/Gawlas 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Nowalinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Gawlas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WApr 26 · 21:35M. Nowalinski—71111113M. Gawlas—119951
LApr 25 · 13:40M. Nowalinski—71111582M. Gawlas—119811113
WJan 24 · 13:00M. Nowalinski—511511113M. Gawlas—11911252
WJan 24 · 10:35M. Nowalinski—125115113M. Gawlas—101191182
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161LSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841
M. Gawlas10
WAug 30 · 14:10M. Gawlas3.001211173T. Spanik1.36109150WAug 30 · 12:30A. Daniel1.6178130M. Gawlas2.201111153WAug 30 · 10:50M. Gawlas3.001112113M. Miastowski1.3681090LAug 30 · 09:40M. Gawlas3.2541111492M. Jadczyk1.33112811113LAug 30 · 08:30M. Gawlas2.2011940A. Daniel1.611311113WAug 30 · 06:55M. Gawlas3.001111113M. Jadczyk1.369750LAug 30 · 05:40M. Gawlas2.38591181M. Nowalinski1.5311119113WAug 30 · 04:10M. Gawlas3.4011111011113M. Miastowski1.3013912892WAug 30 · 03:00M. Gawlas3.501111113T. Spanik1.284420LAug 29 · 14:35M. Gawlas2.7511111071T. Spanik1.4061312113
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