TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13042258
Played Aug 30Finished
Artur Daniel
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7118111315––––
Michal Gawlas
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:32 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeArtur Daniel to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArtur Daniel above · Michal Gawlas below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 13-15
Point 65 set 3, 13-15 — our read held Artur Daniel at 56.5%
65 points played in total.
H2H Artur Daniel 2–4 Michal Gawlas Artur Daniel has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:32What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Daniel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Gawlas
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Daniel 1768 vs Gawlas 1846
Gawlas
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Daniel 60% vs Gawlas 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Daniel 50% vs Gawlas 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Daniel -2 · Gawlas +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Daniel) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gawlas form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDaniel 1.61 / Gawlas 2.20
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Daniel)-3.7pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13042258
Daniel1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 215 of 351
Up 2–0, closes it96% 108 of 113
Up 1–0, closes it78% 165 of 213
Gawlas2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 16 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back10% 3 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDaniel2wins
AwayGawlas4wins
1 of 6 to a deciderGawlas leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDaniel66.7%2 of 3
AwayGawlas100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Daniel3Gawlas3n = 6split evenly
S2Daniel1Gawlas5n = 6Gawlas took 5 of 6
S3Daniel1Gawlas5n = 6Gawlas took 5 of 6
S4Daniel3Gawlas0n = 3Daniel took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away350%
These 6 meetings
MetricDanielGawlasD − GBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match30.236.7−6.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanielGawlasBasisWin rate · lifetime781 / 1465 vs 22 / 6053.3%36.7%781 / 1465 vs 22 / 60Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanielDaniel 1.61/Gawlas 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Daniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Gawlas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WFeb 22 · 11:25A. Daniel—11119113M. Gawlas—361171
LFeb 22 · 07:40A. Daniel—48140M. Gawlas—1111163
LFeb 21 · 07:10A. Daniel—68110M. Gawlas—1111133
LJan 25 · 13:25A. Daniel—2110M. Gawlas—1111113
WJan 25 · 07:40A. Daniel—111011113M. Gawlas—812871
LJan 24 · 05:20A. Daniel—131121142M. Gawlas—1113116113
A. Daniel10
LSep 8 · 12:10M. Sklensky1.811211113A. Daniel1.8310970WSep 8 · 10:55J. Kuzmicz1.9011711792A. Daniel1.76911711113LSep 8 · 09:20G. Poliniewicz2.101151211113A. Daniel1.6041114842WSep 4 · 21:00A. Daniel2.10581211113K. Kolodziej1.67111110592LSep 4 · 19:40A. Daniel1.3311114992T. Filbrandt3.25651111113LSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel1.30123561M. Kolek3.40101111113WSep 4 · 17:20P. Jendrzejewski2.0071141182A. Daniel1.73119119113WSep 4 · 16:30A. Daniel1.501271113113M. Rutkowski2.50141141192WSep 4 · 14:35A. Daniel3.0011611113S. Dosz1.33411681WSep 4 · 13:00A. Daniel1.3511711113G. Poliniewicz2.85611591
M. Gawlas10
WAug 30 · 14:10M. Gawlas3.001211173T. Spanik1.36109150WAug 30 · 11:40M. Nowalinski1.5781191182M. Gawlas2.25116117113WAug 30 · 10:50M. Gawlas3.001112113M. Miastowski1.3681090LAug 30 · 09:40M. Gawlas3.2541111492M. Jadczyk1.33112811113LAug 30 · 08:30M. Gawlas2.2011940A. Daniel1.611311113WAug 30 · 06:55M. Gawlas3.001111113M. Jadczyk1.369750LAug 30 · 05:40M. Gawlas2.38591181M. Nowalinski1.5311119113WAug 30 · 04:10M. Gawlas3.4011111011113M. Miastowski1.3013912892WAug 30 · 03:00M. Gawlas3.501111113T. Spanik1.284420LAug 29 · 14:35M. Gawlas2.7511111071T. Spanik1.4061312113
Upcoming Matches
A. Daniel
M. Gawlas
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