TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098526
Played Sep 9Finished
Dawid Michna
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181161113511611
Grzegorz Felkel
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:10 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Felkel to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDawid Michna above · Grzegorz Felkel below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 93 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Grzegorz Felkel at 58.1%
93 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Michna 29–27 Grzegorz Felkel Grzegorz Felkel has won 27 of their 56 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Michna beat Felkel 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:10What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Felkel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-27 in 56
Michna
Wrong
gap of 2 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michna 1920 vs Felkel 1911
Michna
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michna 20% vs Felkel 40%
Felkel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michna 30% vs Felkel 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michna +1 · Felkel -3
Felkel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Felkel) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Felkel form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichna 2.25 / Felkel 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Felkel)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13098526
Michna2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog52% won 114 of 220
Down 0–1, comes back36% 41 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back13% 6 of 46
Felkel1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 225 of 364
Up 2–0, closes it93% 126 of 136
Up 1–0, closes it79% 164 of 209
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichna8wins
AwayFelkel2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMichna leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichna75%6 of 8
AwayFelkeln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michna8Felkel2n = 10Michna took 8 of 10
S2Michna6Felkel4n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S3Michna8Felkel2n = 10Michna took 8 of 10
S4Michna4Felkel2n = 6Michna took 4 of 6
S5Michna2Felkel2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichnaFelkelM − FBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.434.5+6.9per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichnaFelkelBasisWin rate · lifetime529 / 973 vs 704 / 117354.4%60%529 / 973 vs 704 / 1173Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FelkelMichna 2.25/Felkel 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Felkel · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Felkel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 07:45D. Michna—1111113G. Felkel—9780
WAug 27 · 14:10D. Michna—91111113G. Felkel—114891
WAug 27 · 07:45D. Michna—61111113G. Felkel—119251
LAug 26 · 14:10D. Michna—11681182G. Felkel—911114113
WAug 26 · 07:20D. Michna—118811113G. Felkel—91111772
WAug 14 · 10:00D. Michna—1111113G. Felkel—9680
WAug 14 · 08:05D. Michna—119149113G. Felkel—311121192
WJul 28 · 10:25D. Michna—1111113G. Felkel—8960
WJul 28 · 07:20D. Michna—1213113G. Felkel—101150
LJul 12 · 09:00D. Michna—11914892G. Felkel—8111211113
D. Michna10
WSep 9 · 07:45G. Felkel1.579780D. Michna2.251111113LSep 9 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.6191111113D. Michna2.20118591LSep 9 · 06:05D. Michna1.731110431T. Spanik2.0071211113LSep 9 · 04:30D. Michna1.6196131172K. Wloczko2.201111119113LSep 9 · 03:45A. Grela1.67981111113D. Michna2.1011118952LSep 4 · 15:25D. Michna2.10136121182A. Dosz1.671111149113LSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191WSep 4 · 12:55A. Grela1.6112611642D. Michna2.201011911113WSep 4 · 12:05D. Michna1.671111113K. Kolodziej2.109480LSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113
G. Felkel10
LSep 9 · 07:45G. Felkel1.579780D. Michna2.251111113LSep 9 · 06:30G. Felkel1.7311911682A. Grela2.00711411113LSep 9 · 05:15G. Felkel1.36512111092K. Wloczko3.001110912113WSep 9 · 04:10A. Wiecek1.73911451G. Felkel2.0011811113WSep 9 · 03:25G. Felkel1.917141011113T. Spanik1.80111212632LAug 27 · 14:10D. Michna2.2091111113G. Felkel1.61114891WAug 27 · 13:20K. Kolodziej2.5010560G. Felkel1.501211113LAug 27 · 11:15A. Grela1.73121011113G. Felkel2.001012581LAug 27 · 10:25S. Kolasa2.1081111133G. Felkel1.671164111WAug 27 · 09:00P. David1.50711115112G. Felkel2.50119911133
Upcoming Matches
D. Michna1 of 8 neutral
Sep 9 · 11:40D. Michna1.83K. Kolodziej1.83—Sep 9 · 12:55D. Michna1.73M. Jadczyk2.00—Sep 9 · 14:35D. Michna2.00A. Grela1.73—Sep 10 · 03:20D. Michna—K. Wloczko——Sep 10 · 06:15D. Michna—M. Jadczyk——Sep 10 · 07:25D. Michna2.00G. Felkel1.73—Sep 10 · 09:40D. Michna—M. Jadczyk——Sep 10 · 10:50D. Michna—K. Kolodziej——
G. Felkel1 of 8 neutral
Sep 9 · 10:25G. Felkel1.80M. Jadczyk1.91—Sep 9 · 11:15G. Felkel1.91A. Wiecek1.80—Sep 9 · 13:20G. Felkel1.83A. Grela1.83—Sep 9 · 14:10G. Felkel1.57K. Kolodziej2.25—Sep 10 · 04:20G. Felkel—M. Jadczyk——Sep 10 · 07:25G. Felkel1.73D. Michna2.00—Sep 10 · 10:25G. Felkel1.80M. Jadczyk1.91—Sep 10 · 13:20G. Felkel—K. Kolodziej——
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