TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098603
Played Sep 9Finished
Dawid Michna
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116811119911115
Krystian Kolodziej
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:21 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDawid Michna to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDawid Michna above · Krystian Kolodziej below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 92 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Dawid Michna at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Michna 19–12 Krystian Kolodziej Krystian Kolodziej has won 12 of their 31 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:21What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kolodziej
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-12 in 31
Michna
Correct
gap of 7 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michna 1908 vs Kolodziej 1857
Michna
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michna 20% vs Kolodziej 40%
Kolodziej
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michna 20% vs Kolodziej 40%
Kolodziej
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michna -2 · Kolodziej -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolodziej) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolodziej form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichna 1.83 / Kolodziej 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kolodziej)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13098603
Michna1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Kolodziej1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichna5wins
AwayKolodziej5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichna66.7%4 of 6
AwayKolodziej75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michna6Kolodziej4n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S2Michna7Kolodziej3n = 10Michna took 7 of 10
S3Michna4Kolodziej6n = 10Kolodziej took 6 of 10
S4Michna2Kolodziej6n = 8Kolodziej took 6 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichnaKolodziejM − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.838.7+1.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichnaKolodziejBasisWin rate · lifetime530 / 976 vs 1314 / 195654.3%67.2%530 / 976 vs 1314 / 1956Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolodziejMichna 1.83/Kolodziej 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kolodziej · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 12:05D. Michna—1111113K. Kolodziej—9480
LSep 3 · 10:25D. Michna—8111191K. Kolodziej—11913113
WAug 27 · 10:50D. Michna—1311113K. Kolodziej—11890
WAug 18 · 12:05D. Michna—9111110123K. Kolodziej—117912102
LAug 17 · 12:30D. Michna—129991K. Kolodziej—101111113
WJul 15 · 14:10D. Michna—13168113K. Kolodziej—11141181
LJul 12 · 11:40D. Michna—118981K. Kolodziej—41111113
LJul 6 · 10:50D. Michna—7111271K. Kolodziej—11914113
WApr 7 · 24:40D. Michna—111113113K. Kolodziej—871571
LApr 6 · 22:15D. Michna—941181K. Kolodziej—11116113
D. Michna10
LSep 10 · 12:30A. Grela1.831171011113D. Michna1.8351112962WSep 10 · 11:40K. Wloczko1.915970D. Michna1.801111113LSep 10 · 10:50D. Michna1.8311117111K. Kolodziej1.8381311133WSep 10 · 09:40D. Michna2.101311113M. Jadczyk1.6711990LSep 10 · 08:35A. Grela1.671211113D. Michna2.1010990LSep 10 · 07:25D. Michna2.00126111182G. Felkel1.73141167113WSep 10 · 06:15M. Jadczyk1.6771111842D. Michna2.10117611113WSep 10 · 04:40M. Miastowski1.8311211962D. Michna1.83711811113WSep 10 · 03:20K. Wloczko2.10512631D. Michna1.67111011113WSep 9 · 14:35D. Michna2.0011911113A. Grela1.73711951
K. Kolodziej10
LSep 10 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.3671111113K. Kolodziej3.00115581WSep 10 · 10:50D. Michna1.8311117111K. Kolodziej1.8381311133LSep 10 · 09:20A. Grela1.4411116113K. Kolodziej2.63981151WSep 9 · 14:10K. Kolodziej2.251111123G. Felkel1.5788100LSep 9 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.4461111113K. Kolodziej2.63116771LSep 9 · 10:50K. Kolodziej2.50281161A. Grela1.5011116113WSep 9 · 09:40K. Kolodziej2.751111113M. Jadczyk1.404960LSep 8 · 14:10K. Wloczko1.8071111113K. Kolodziej1.91119991LSep 8 · 13:20A. Wiecek1.361011177113K. Kolodziej3.00127151172WSep 8 · 11:15J. Kosowski1.3311711142K. Kolodziej3.25911911113
Upcoming Matches
D. Michna
Nothing scheduled
K. Kolodziej1 of 10 neutral
Sep 10 · 14:35K. Kolodziej1.67K. Wloczko2.10—Sep 10 · 15:25K. Kolodziej1.33J. Chmielowski3.25—Sep 10 · 16:05K. Kolodziej1.28M. Olbrycht3.50—Sep 10 · 17:20K. Kolodziej1.28K. Staszczyk3.50—Sep 10 · 18:30K. Kolodziej1.36J. Mitas3.00—Sep 10 · 19:40K. Kolodziej1.63K. Kapik2.05—Sep 11 · 10:00K. Kolodziej1.73K. Strowski2.00—Sep 11 · 11:40K. Kolodziej2.75M. Jadczyk1.40—Sep 11 · 12:30K. Kolodziej2.00J. Kuzmicz1.73—Sep 11 · 14:35K. Kolodziej—K. Wloczko——
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