TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13103325
Played Sep 10Finished
Dawid Michna
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311119119––––
Marcin Jadczyk
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:49 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDawid Michna above · Marcin Jadczyk below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 64 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 61.3%
64 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Michna 27–34 Marcin Jadczyk Dawid Michna has won 27 of their 61 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Michna beat Jadczyk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:49What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Jadczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-34 in 61
Jadczyk
Wrong
gap of 7 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michna 1951 vs Jadczyk 1837
Michna
Correct
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michna 100% vs Jadczyk 40%
Michna
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michna 70% vs Jadczyk 40%
Michna
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michna +5 · Jadczyk -1
Michna
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Jadczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jadczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichna 2.10 / Jadczyk 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Jadczyk)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13103325
Michna2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog52% won 116 of 225
Down 0–1, comes back36% 41 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back13% 6 of 46
Jadczyk1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 430 of 677
Up 2–0, closes it98% 215 of 219
Up 1–0, closes it83% 338 of 406
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichna5wins
AwayJadczyk5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichna66.7%4 of 6
AwayJadczyk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michna6Jadczyk4n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S2Michna6Jadczyk4n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S3Michna4Jadczyk6n = 10Jadczyk took 6 of 10
S4Michna4Jadczyk4n = 8split evenly
S5Michna2Jadczyk3n = 5Jadczyk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichnaJadczykM − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.939.8+0.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichnaJadczykBasisWin rate · lifetime531 / 976 vs 978 / 166954.4%58.6%531 / 976 vs 978 / 1669Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykMichna 2.10/Jadczyk 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 06:15D. Michna—117611113M. Jadczyk—71111842
WSep 9 · 12:55D. Michna—11117113M. Jadczyk—871171
LSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna—6880M. Jadczyk—1111113
LSep 4 · 06:05D. Michna—914911102M. Jadczyk—1112115123
LSep 3 · 06:05D. Michna—81111792M. Jadczyk—117811113
LAug 26 · 10:25D. Michna—11311892M. Jadczyk—411711113
LAug 26 · 04:30D. Michna—116631M. Jadczyk—91111113
WAug 17 · 13:45D. Michna—1115113M. Jadczyk—61380
WAug 17 · 06:55D. Michna—711118113M. Jadczyk—11881162
WAug 15 · 13:45D. Michna—11116113M. Jadczyk—881181
D. Michna10
WSep 10 · 11:40K. Wloczko1.915970D. Michna1.801111113LSep 10 · 10:50D. Michna1.8311117111K. Kolodziej1.8381311133LSep 10 · 08:35A. Grela1.671211113D. Michna2.1010990LSep 10 · 07:25D. Michna2.00126111182G. Felkel1.73141167113WSep 10 · 06:15M. Jadczyk1.6771111842D. Michna2.10117611113WSep 10 · 04:40M. Miastowski1.8311211962D. Michna1.83711811113WSep 10 · 03:20K. Wloczko2.10512631D. Michna1.67111011113WSep 9 · 14:35D. Michna2.0011911113A. Grela1.73711951WSep 9 · 12:55D. Michna1.7311117113M. Jadczyk2.00871171WSep 9 · 11:40D. Michna1.83118119113K. Kolodziej1.8361191152
M. Jadczyk10
WSep 10 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.3671111113K. Kolodziej3.00115581LSep 10 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.8311781122G. Felkel1.83611115113LSep 10 · 07:45K. Wloczko2.5015114113M. Jadczyk1.501361181WSep 10 · 07:00A. Grela1.8371111672M. Jadczyk1.83114811113LSep 10 · 06:15M. Jadczyk1.6771111842D. Michna2.10117611113LSep 10 · 04:20M. Jadczyk2.20511114132G. Felkel1.61116911153WSep 10 · 03:40M. Miastowski2.10881181M. Jadczyk1.6711112113LSep 9 · 13:45A. Wiecek2.0011134113M. Jadczyk1.739111171LSep 9 · 12:55D. Michna1.7311117113M. Jadczyk2.00871171WSep 9 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.73119711113A. Grela2.0021111482
Upcoming Matches
D. Michna
M. Jadczyk
Sep 10 · 12:55M. Jadczyk1.44K. Wloczko2.63—Sep 10 · 13:45M. Jadczyk1.91A. Grela1.80—Sep 11 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.67J. Kuzmicz2.10—Sep 11 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.00M. Olejnik1.73—Sep 11 · 06:55M. Jadczyk1.73M. Miastowski2.00—Sep 11 · 07:45M. Jadczyk1.17G. Poliniewicz4.50—Sep 11 · 10:50M. Jadczyk2.00M. Olejnik1.73—Sep 11 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.36K. Kolodziej3.00—Sep 11 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.44K. Wloczko2.63—Sep 11 · 14:10M. Jadczyk1.40K. Strowski2.75—
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