TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13103324
Played Sep 10Finished
Marcin Jadczyk
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116711811115211
Grzegorz Felkel
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Felkel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Jadczyk above · Grzegorz Felkel below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 2-11
Point 83 set 5, 2-11 — our read held Grzegorz Felkel at 54.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Jadczyk 41–62 Grzegorz Felkel Marcin Jadczyk has won 41 of their 103 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:49What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Felkel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-62 in 103
Felkel
Correct
gap of 21 in 103, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadczyk 1837 vs Felkel 1896
Felkel
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadczyk 40% vs Felkel 60%
Felkel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadczyk 40% vs Felkel 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadczyk -1 · Felkel +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Felkel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jadczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadczyk 1.83 / Felkel 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Felkel)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13103324
Jadczyk1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Felkel1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJadczyk5wins
AwayFelkel5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadczyk57.1%4 of 7
AwayFelkel66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadczyk7Felkel3n = 10Jadczyk took 7 of 10
S2Jadczyk4Felkel6n = 10Felkel took 6 of 10
S3Jadczyk6Felkel4n = 10Jadczyk took 6 of 10
S4Jadczyk2Felkel5n = 7Felkel took 5 of 7
S5Jadczyk2Felkel3n = 5Felkel took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJadczykFelkelJ − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.736.7+2.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadczykFelkelBasisWin rate · lifetime978 / 1669 vs 704 / 117758.6%59.8%978 / 1669 vs 704 / 1177Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FelkelJadczyk 1.83/Felkel 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Felkel · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Felkel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 09:40M. Jadczyk—119116113G. Felkel—81191142
LAug 26 · 06:05M. Jadczyk—6770G. Felkel—1111113
LAug 20 · 06:05M. Jadczyk—4980G. Felkel—1111113
WAug 19 · 12:05M. Jadczyk—1111113G. Felkel—3680
LAug 19 · 07:45M. Jadczyk—111111992G. Felkel—461311113
LAug 14 · 11:40M. Jadczyk—11911462G. Felkel—611611113
WAug 14 · 04:30M. Jadczyk—11117113G. Felkel—671141
WAug 13 · 04:30M. Jadczyk—811115113G. Felkel—11691172
WAug 3 · 10:25M. Jadczyk—111011113G. Felkel—912621
LAug 3 · 04:30M. Jadczyk—11511982G. Felkel—911811113
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 10 · 09:40D. Michna2.101311113M. Jadczyk1.6711990LSep 10 · 07:45K. Wloczko2.5015114113M. Jadczyk1.501361181WSep 10 · 07:00A. Grela1.8371111672M. Jadczyk1.83114811113LSep 10 · 06:15M. Jadczyk1.6771111842D. Michna2.10117611113LSep 10 · 04:20M. Jadczyk2.20511114132G. Felkel1.61116911153WSep 10 · 03:40M. Miastowski2.10881181M. Jadczyk1.6711112113LSep 9 · 13:45A. Wiecek2.0011134113M. Jadczyk1.739111171LSep 9 · 12:55D. Michna1.7311117113M. Jadczyk2.00871171WSep 9 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.73119711113A. Grela2.0021111482WSep 9 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.9161111113G. Felkel1.80119751
G. Felkel10
LSep 10 · 11:15A. Grela1.831211510113G. Felkel1.83107111272WSep 10 · 09:00K. Wloczko3.001149101G. Felkel1.3661111123LSep 10 · 08:10M. Miastowski2.5011811143G. Felkel1.502119121WSep 10 · 07:25D. Michna2.00126111182G. Felkel1.73141167113LSep 10 · 05:30K. Wloczko3.00511159143G. Felkel1.361171311122WSep 10 · 04:20M. Jadczyk2.20511114132G. Felkel1.61116911153WSep 10 · 03:00A. Grela2.00101141292G. Felkel1.731271110113LSep 9 · 14:10K. Kolodziej2.251111123G. Felkel1.5788100LSep 9 · 13:20A. Grela1.836111111143G. Felkel1.83116135122LSep 9 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.9161111113G. Felkel1.80119751
Upcoming Matches
M. Jadczyk
Sep 10 · 12:55M. Jadczyk1.44K. Wloczko2.63—Sep 10 · 13:45M. Jadczyk1.91A. Grela1.80—Sep 11 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.67J. Kuzmicz2.10—Sep 11 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.00M. Olejnik1.73—Sep 11 · 06:55M. Jadczyk1.73M. Miastowski2.00—Sep 11 · 07:45M. Jadczyk—G. Poliniewicz——Sep 11 · 10:50M. Jadczyk2.00M. Olejnik1.73—Sep 11 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.36K. Kolodziej3.00—Sep 11 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.44K. Wloczko2.63—Sep 11 · 14:10M. Jadczyk1.40K. Strowski2.75—
G. Felkel
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