TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098488
Played Sep 9Finished
Marcin Jadczyk
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611119117115––
Grzegorz Felkel
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Felkel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarcin Jadczyk above · Grzegorz Felkel below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 71 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Grzegorz Felkel at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Jadczyk 41–62 Grzegorz Felkel Marcin Jadczyk has won 41 of their 103 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:00What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Felkel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-62 in 103
Felkel
Wrong
gap of 21 in 103, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadczyk 1846 vs Felkel 1922
Felkel
Wrong
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadczyk 40% vs Felkel 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadczyk 50% vs Felkel 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadczyk -3 · Felkel +1
Jadczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Felkel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Felkel form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadczyk 1.91 / Felkel 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Felkel)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13098488
Jadczyk1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 140 of 310
Down 0–1, comes back28% 40 of 145
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 62
Felkel1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 225 of 364
Up 2–0, closes it93% 126 of 136
Up 1–0, closes it79% 164 of 209
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJadczyk5wins
AwayFelkel5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadczyk57.1%4 of 7
AwayFelkel66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadczyk7Felkel3n = 10Jadczyk took 7 of 10
S2Jadczyk4Felkel6n = 10Felkel took 6 of 10
S3Jadczyk6Felkel4n = 10Jadczyk took 6 of 10
S4Jadczyk2Felkel5n = 7Felkel took 5 of 7
S5Jadczyk2Felkel3n = 5Felkel took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJadczykFelkelJ − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.736.7+2.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadczykFelkelBasisWin rate · lifetime976 / 1665 vs 705 / 117458.6%60.1%976 / 1665 vs 705 / 1174Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FelkelJadczyk 1.91/Felkel 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Felkel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 09:40M. Jadczyk—119116113G. Felkel—81191142
LAug 26 · 06:05M. Jadczyk—6770G. Felkel—1111113
LAug 20 · 06:05M. Jadczyk—4980G. Felkel—1111113
WAug 19 · 12:05M. Jadczyk—1111113G. Felkel—3680
LAug 19 · 07:45M. Jadczyk—111111992G. Felkel—461311113
LAug 14 · 11:40M. Jadczyk—11911462G. Felkel—611611113
WAug 14 · 04:30M. Jadczyk—11117113G. Felkel—671141
WAug 13 · 04:30M. Jadczyk—811115113G. Felkel—11691172
WAug 3 · 10:25M. Jadczyk—111011113G. Felkel—912621
LAug 3 · 04:30M. Jadczyk—11511982G. Felkel—911811113
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 9 · 09:40K. Kolodziej2.751111113M. Jadczyk1.404960LSep 7 · 07:45J. Kosowski1.8181111113M. Jadczyk1.86117871LSep 7 · 06:55S. Kolasa2.00131111113M. Jadczyk1.73156591WSep 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.141111510113G. Poliniewicz5.0079111282WSep 7 · 03:45P. David1.91117851M. Jadczyk1.8091111113WSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113LSep 4 · 14:10A. Grela2.10129147113M. Jadczyk1.671011121182LSep 4 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.44591191K. Kolodziej2.6311118113WSep 4 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.8311912133A. Dosz1.8381110111WSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113
G. Felkel10
WSep 9 · 09:00D. Michna2.25111111562G. Felkel1.57861311113LSep 9 · 07:45G. Felkel1.579780D. Michna2.251111113LSep 9 · 06:30G. Felkel1.7311911682A. Grela2.00711411113LSep 9 · 05:15G. Felkel1.36512111092K. Wloczko3.001110912113WSep 9 · 04:10A. Wiecek1.73911451G. Felkel2.0011811113WSep 9 · 03:25G. Felkel1.917141011113T. Spanik1.80111212632LAug 27 · 14:10D. Michna2.2091111113G. Felkel1.61114891WAug 27 · 13:20K. Kolodziej2.5010560G. Felkel1.501211113LAug 27 · 11:15A. Grela1.73121011113G. Felkel2.001012581LAug 27 · 10:25S. Kolasa2.1081111133G. Felkel1.671164111
Upcoming Matches
M. Jadczyk2 of 10 neutral
Sep 9 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.73A. Grela2.00—Sep 9 · 12:55M. Jadczyk2.00D. Michna1.73—Sep 9 · 13:45M. Jadczyk1.80A. Wiecek1.91—Sep 10 · 03:40M. Jadczyk—M. Miastowski——Sep 10 · 04:20M. Jadczyk—G. Felkel——Sep 10 · 06:15M. Jadczyk—D. Michna——Sep 10 · 07:00M. Jadczyk—A. Grela——Sep 10 · 07:45M. Jadczyk—K. Wloczko——Sep 10 · 09:40M. Jadczyk—D. Michna——Sep 10 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.91G. Felkel1.80—
G. Felkel1 of 8 neutral
Sep 9 · 11:15G. Felkel1.91A. Wiecek1.80—Sep 9 · 13:20G. Felkel1.83A. Grela1.83—Sep 9 · 14:10G. Felkel1.57K. Kolodziej2.25—Sep 10 · 03:00G. Felkel1.73A. Grela2.00—Sep 10 · 04:20G. Felkel—M. Jadczyk——Sep 10 · 07:25G. Felkel1.73D. Michna2.00—Sep 10 · 10:25G. Felkel1.80M. Jadczyk1.91—Sep 10 · 13:20G. Felkel—K. Kolodziej——
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