TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13103329
Played Sep 10Finished
Marcin Jadczyk
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711117116811411
Dawid Michna
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:51 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarcin Jadczyk above · Dawid Michna below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 88 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 61.3%
88 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Jadczyk 34–27 Dawid Michna Dawid Michna has won 27 of their 61 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:51What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Jadczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-27 in 61
Jadczyk
Wrong
gap of 7 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadczyk 1835 vs Michna 1965
Michna
Correct
both rated, 131 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadczyk 40% vs Michna 100%
Michna
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadczyk 40% vs Michna 60%
Michna
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadczyk -1 · Michna +5
Michna
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Jadczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michna form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadczyk 1.67 / Michna 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Jadczyk)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13103329
Jadczyk1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 430 of 677
Up 2–0, closes it98% 215 of 219
Up 1–0, closes it83% 338 of 406
Michna2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog52% won 116 of 225
Down 0–1, comes back36% 41 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back13% 6 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJadczyk5wins
AwayMichna5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadczyk75%3 of 4
AwayMichna66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadczyk4Michna6n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S2Jadczyk4Michna6n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S3Jadczyk6Michna4n = 10Jadczyk took 6 of 10
S4Jadczyk4Michna4n = 8split evenly
S5Jadczyk3Michna2n = 5Jadczyk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJadczykMichnaJ − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.839.9−0.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadczykMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime977 / 1669 vs 532 / 97758.5%54.5%977 / 1669 vs 532 / 977Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykJadczyk 1.67/Michna 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 06:15M. Jadczyk—71111842D. Michna—117611113
LSep 9 · 12:55M. Jadczyk—871171D. Michna—11117113
WSep 4 · 10:50M. Jadczyk—1111113D. Michna—6880
WSep 4 · 06:05M. Jadczyk—1112115123D. Michna—914911102
WSep 3 · 06:05M. Jadczyk—117811113D. Michna—81111792
WAug 26 · 10:25M. Jadczyk—411711113D. Michna—11311892
WAug 26 · 04:30M. Jadczyk—91111113D. Michna—116631
LAug 17 · 13:45M. Jadczyk—61380D. Michna—1115113
LAug 17 · 06:55M. Jadczyk—11881162D. Michna—711118113
LAug 15 · 13:45M. Jadczyk—881181D. Michna—11116113
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 10 · 04:20M. Jadczyk2.20511114132G. Felkel1.61116911153WSep 10 · 03:40M. Miastowski2.10881181M. Jadczyk1.6711112113LSep 9 · 13:45A. Wiecek2.0011134113M. Jadczyk1.739111171LSep 9 · 12:55D. Michna1.7311117113M. Jadczyk2.00871171WSep 9 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.73119711113A. Grela2.0021111482WSep 9 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.9161111113G. Felkel1.80119751LSep 9 · 09:40K. Kolodziej2.751111113M. Jadczyk1.404960LSep 7 · 07:45J. Kosowski1.8181111113M. Jadczyk1.86117871LSep 7 · 06:55S. Kolasa2.00131111113M. Jadczyk1.73156591WSep 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.141111510113G. Poliniewicz5.0079111282
D. Michna10
WSep 10 · 04:40M. Miastowski1.8311211962D. Michna1.83711811113WSep 10 · 03:20K. Wloczko2.10512631D. Michna1.67111011113WSep 9 · 14:35D. Michna2.0011911113A. Grela1.73711951WSep 9 · 12:55D. Michna1.7311117113M. Jadczyk2.00871171WSep 9 · 11:40D. Michna1.83118119113K. Kolodziej1.8361191152LSep 9 · 10:00D. Michna2.10411411112A. Wiecek1.67114119133LSep 9 · 09:00D. Michna2.25111111562G. Felkel1.57861311113WSep 9 · 07:45G. Felkel1.579780D. Michna2.251111113LSep 9 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.6191111113D. Michna2.20118591LSep 9 · 06:05D. Michna1.731110431T. Spanik2.0071211113
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