TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098548
Played Sep 9Finished
Marcin Jadczyk
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
112911711114118
Artur Grela
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:20 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Jadczyk above · Artur Grela below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 85 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 56.2%
85 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Jadczyk 41–46 Artur Grela Marcin Jadczyk has won 41 of their 87 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:20What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jadczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-46 in 87
Grela
Wrong
gap of 5 in 87, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadczyk 1874 vs Grela 1923
Grela
Wrong
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadczyk 40% vs Grela 80%
Grela
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadczyk 50% vs Grela 70%
Grela
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadczyk +1 · Grela +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jadczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grela form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadczyk 1.73 / Grela 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jadczyk)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13098548
Jadczyk1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 434 of 682
Up 2–0, closes it98% 218 of 222
Up 1–0, closes it83% 341 of 410
Grela2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 126 of 270
Down 0–1, comes back31% 45 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJadczyk6wins
AwayGrela4wins
7 of 10 to a deciderJadczyk leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadczyk80%4 of 5
AwayGrela60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadczyk5Grela5n = 10split evenly
S2Jadczyk6Grela4n = 10Jadczyk took 6 of 10
S3Jadczyk7Grela3n = 10Jadczyk took 7 of 10
S4Jadczyk3Grela7n = 10Grela took 7 of 10
S5Jadczyk4Grela3n = 7Jadczyk took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJadczykGrelaJ − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.641.9+1.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadczykGrelaBasisWin rate · lifetime978 / 1667 vs 635 / 125558.7%50.6%978 / 1667 vs 635 / 1255Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykJadczyk 1.73/Grela 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 06:55M. Jadczyk—881111113A. Grela—11115932
WAug 20 · 12:05M. Jadczyk—11118113A. Grela—661181
WAug 20 · 07:45M. Jadczyk—118138113A. Grela—911111152
WAug 15 · 09:40M. Jadczyk—119116113A. Grela—31191162
LAug 14 · 13:20M. Jadczyk—11126882A. Grela—9101111113
LAug 14 · 07:45M. Jadczyk—611951A. Grela—11711113
WAug 6 · 13:45M. Jadczyk—1011115113A. Grela—12771162
LAug 5 · 12:55M. Jadczyk—81111652A. Grela—117511113
WAug 1 · 04:30M. Jadczyk—11911113A. Grela—711971
LJul 31 · 06:05M. Jadczyk—61111482A. Grela—116911113
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 9 · 12:55D. Michna1.7311117113M. Jadczyk2.00871171WSep 9 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.9161111113G. Felkel1.80119751LSep 9 · 09:40K. Kolodziej2.751111113M. Jadczyk1.404960LSep 7 · 07:45J. Kosowski1.8181111113M. Jadczyk1.86117871LSep 7 · 06:55S. Kolasa2.00131111113M. Jadczyk1.73156591WSep 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.141111510113G. Poliniewicz5.0079111282WSep 7 · 03:45P. David1.91117851M. Jadczyk1.8091111113WSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113LSep 4 · 14:10A. Grela2.10129147113M. Jadczyk1.671011121182LSep 4 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.44591191K. Kolodziej2.6311118113
A. Grela10
WSep 9 · 10:50K. Kolodziej2.50281161A. Grela1.5011116113LSep 9 · 09:20A. Wiecek1.67117137133A. Grela2.104111111112WSep 9 · 08:05A. Grela1.531111133K. Wloczko2.3887110WSep 9 · 06:30G. Felkel1.7311911682A. Grela2.00711411113WSep 9 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.8396121162A. Grela1.831111108113WSep 9 · 04:55A. Grela1.80111213113T. Spanik1.916141181WSep 9 · 03:45A. Grela1.67981111113D. Michna2.1011118952LSep 5 · 13:45A. Grela1.8391111492S. Kolasa1.83117811113LSep 5 · 12:30A. Grela1.5314381142M. Nowalinski2.381211114113WSep 4 · 14:10A. Grela2.10129147113M. Jadczyk1.671011121182
Upcoming Matches
M. Jadczyk
Sep 9 · 13:45M. Jadczyk1.80A. Wiecek1.91—Sep 10 · 03:40M. Jadczyk1.67M. Miastowski2.10—Sep 10 · 04:20M. Jadczyk2.00G. Felkel1.73—Sep 10 · 06:15M. Jadczyk2.00D. Michna1.73—Sep 10 · 07:00M. Jadczyk1.83A. Grela1.83—Sep 10 · 07:45M. Jadczyk1.50K. Wloczko2.50—Sep 10 · 09:40M. Jadczyk1.67D. Michna2.10—Sep 10 · 10:25M. Jadczyk2.00G. Felkel1.73—Sep 10 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.36K. Kolodziej3.00—Sep 10 · 12:55M. Jadczyk1.50K. Wloczko2.50—
A. Grela
Sep 9 · 14:35A. Grela1.73D. Michna2.00—Sep 10 · 03:00A. Grela2.00G. Felkel1.73—Sep 10 · 04:00A. Grela1.53K. Wloczko2.38—Sep 10 · 07:00A. Grela1.83M. Jadczyk1.83—Sep 10 · 08:35A. Grela1.73D. Michna2.00—Sep 10 · 09:20A. Grela1.44K. Kolodziej2.63—Sep 10 · 12:30A. Grela1.73D. Michna2.00—Sep 10 · 13:45A. Grela—M. Jadczyk——
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