TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098595
Played Sep 9Finished
Adrian Wiecek
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11471113117111311
Artur Grela
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:21 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeArtur Grela to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Artur Grela below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 99 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Artur Grela at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Wiecek 77–58 Artur Grela Artur Grela has won 58 of their 135 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:21What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Wiecek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
77-58 in 135
Wiecek
Correct
gap of 19 in 135, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wiecek 1897 vs Grela 1941
Grela
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wiecek 60% vs Grela 100%
Grela
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wiecek 50% vs Grela 80%
Grela
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wiecek +2 · Grela +5
Grela
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Wiecek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grela form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWiecek 1.67 / Grela 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Wiecek)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13098595
Wiecek1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 203 of 327
Up 2–0, closes it95% 83 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it80% 148 of 186
Grela2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 126 of 270
Down 0–1, comes back31% 45 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWiecek8wins
AwayGrela2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderWiecek leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWiecek75%3 of 4
AwayGrela16.7%1 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wiecek4Grela6n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S2Wiecek7Grela3n = 10Wiecek took 7 of 10
S3Wiecek6Grela4n = 10Wiecek took 6 of 10
S4Wiecek10Grela0n = 10Wiecek took 10 of 10
S5Wiecek1Grela2n = 3Grela took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home770%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWiecekGrelaW − GBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match44.739.0+5.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWiecekGrelaBasisWin rate · lifetime781 / 1417 vs 634 / 125255.1%50.6%781 / 1417 vs 634 / 1252Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.238.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WiecekWiecek 1.67/Grela 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Wiecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Wiecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 17 · 13:45A. Wiecek—91316113A. Grela—11111481
WJun 17 · 08:30A. Wiecek—111111113A. Grela—137641
WJun 16 · 11:15A. Wiecek—711914113A. Grela—118111292
WJun 16 · 03:00A. Wiecek—61113123A. Grela—11611101
WJun 15 · 14:35A. Wiecek—14614113A. Grela—12111221
LJun 15 · 07:45A. Wiecek—11861172A. Grela—311115113
LJun 9 · 11:10A. Wiecek—71181192A. Grela—119117113
WJun 9 · 05:05A. Wiecek—81111113A. Grela—117871
WJun 8 · 10:00A. Wiecek—14118113A. Grela—1261191
WJun 8 · 09:10A. Wiecek—11811113A. Grela—711471
A. Wiecek10
WSep 9 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.611114116113T. Spanik2.2091671162WSep 9 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.6191111113D. Michna2.20118591LSep 9 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.8396121162A. Grela1.831111108113LSep 9 · 04:10A. Wiecek1.73911451G. Felkel2.0011811113WSep 9 · 03:00A. Wiecek1.33111178143K. Wloczko3.25971111122LSep 8 · 14:35T. Spanik1.73101111113A. Wiecek2.00129781WSep 8 · 13:20A. Wiecek1.361011177113K. Kolodziej3.00127151172WSep 8 · 12:05M. Olejnik1.8346111192A. Wiecek1.83111186113LSep 8 · 10:50K. Wloczko2.7511117113A. Wiecek1.40981181LSep 8 · 09:20J. Kosowski1.6712611133A. Wiecek2.1010118111
A. Grela10
WSep 9 · 08:05A. Grela1.531111133K. Wloczko2.3887110WSep 9 · 06:30G. Felkel1.7311911682A. Grela2.00711411113WSep 9 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.8396121162A. Grela1.831111108113WSep 9 · 04:55A. Grela1.80111213113T. Spanik1.916141181WSep 9 · 03:45A. Grela1.67981111113D. Michna2.1011118952LSep 5 · 13:45A. Grela1.8391111492S. Kolasa1.83117811113LSep 5 · 12:30A. Grela1.5314381142M. Nowalinski2.381211114113WSep 5 · 11:15A. Grela1.33811711113G. Adamiak3.2511611732WSep 5 · 10:00M. Domin3.251111471A. Grela1.3313711113WSep 5 · 09:20A. Grela1.3011712113S. Sporek3.407111071
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