TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098580
Played Sep 9Finished
Adrian Wiecek
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191416117611116
Tibor Spanik
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:21 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Tibor Spanik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 14-16
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 102 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Tibor Spanik at 54.9%
102 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Wiecek 12–13 Tibor Spanik Adrian Wiecek has won 12 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:21What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Wiecek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-13 in 25
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wiecek 1886 vs Spanik 1885
Wiecek
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wiecek 40% vs Spanik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wiecek 40% vs Spanik 60%
Spanik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wiecek +1 · Spanik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Wiecek) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wiecek form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWiecek 1.61 / Spanik 2.20
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Wiecek)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13098580
Wiecek1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 203 of 327
Up 2–0, closes it95% 83 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it80% 148 of 186
Spanik2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog53% won 70 of 133
Down 0–1, comes back29% 18 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWiecek4wins
AwaySpanik6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSpanik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWiecek50%3 of 6
AwaySpanik75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wiecek6Spanik4n = 10Wiecek took 6 of 10
S2Wiecek5Spanik5n = 10split evenly
S3Wiecek3Spanik7n = 10Spanik took 7 of 10
S4Wiecek5Spanik3n = 8Wiecek took 5 of 8
S5Wiecek1Spanik3n = 4Spanik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricWiecekSpanikW − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.341.9+0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWiecekSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime780 / 1416 vs 234 / 41855.1%56%780 / 1416 vs 234 / 418Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WiecekWiecek 1.61/Spanik 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Wiecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Wiecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 14:35A. Wiecek—129781T. Spanik—101111113
LSep 8 · 03:45A. Wiecek—181174102T. Spanik—1691111123
WAug 18 · 14:10A. Wiecek—117711113T. Spanik—71111562
LAug 18 · 05:15A. Wiecek—89111192T. Spanik—111177113
WAug 17 · 14:35A. Wiecek—14118113T. Spanik—1281181
LAug 17 · 06:30A. Wiecek—1011101192T. Spanik—129125113
WJun 2 · 12:25A. Wiecek—1112113T. Spanik—81070
LJun 2 · 05:05A. Wiecek—48100T. Spanik—1111123
WJun 1 · 13:15A. Wiecek—91111183T. Spanik—1198161
LJun 1 · 05:50A. Wiecek—11121091T. Spanik—21412113
A. Wiecek10
WSep 9 · 09:20A. Wiecek1.67117137133A. Grela2.104111111112WSep 9 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.6191111113D. Michna2.20118591LSep 9 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.8396121162A. Grela1.831111108113LSep 9 · 04:10A. Wiecek1.73911451G. Felkel2.0011811113WSep 9 · 03:00A. Wiecek1.33111178143K. Wloczko3.25971111122LSep 8 · 14:35T. Spanik1.73101111113A. Wiecek2.00129781WSep 8 · 13:20A. Wiecek1.361011177113K. Kolodziej3.00127151172WSep 8 · 12:05M. Olejnik1.8346111192A. Wiecek1.83111186113LSep 8 · 10:50K. Wloczko2.7511117113A. Wiecek1.40981181LSep 8 · 09:20J. Kosowski1.6712611133A. Wiecek2.1010118111
T. Spanik10
LSep 9 · 09:20T. Spanik1.54116861M. Benes2.2561111113LSep 9 · 07:20T. Spanik1.7381441282K. Wloczko2.0011121110113WSep 9 · 06:05D. Michna1.731110431T. Spanik2.0071211113LSep 9 · 04:55A. Grela1.80111213113T. Spanik1.916141181LSep 9 · 03:25G. Felkel1.917141011113T. Spanik1.80111212632WSep 8 · 14:35T. Spanik1.73101111113A. Wiecek2.00129781WSep 8 · 12:55T. Spanik1.9111118143M. Olejnik1.804611121WSep 8 · 11:40T. Spanik1.8013116123K. Wloczko1.9111811101WSep 8 · 10:00T. Spanik2.201111113J. Kosowski1.619850WSep 8 · 09:00T. Spanik1.611113113K. Kolodziej2.2051180
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