TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098532
Played Sep 9Finished
Krystian Kolodziej
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181181210––––
Grzegorz Felkel
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:10 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Felkel to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKrystian Kolodziej above · Grzegorz Felkel below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 60 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Grzegorz Felkel at 61.3%
60 points played in total.
H2H Krystian Kolodziej 5–12 Grzegorz Felkel Krystian Kolodziej has won 5 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:10What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Felkel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-12 in 17
Felkel
Wrong
gap of 7 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolodziej 1876 vs Felkel 1892
Felkel
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolodziej 20% vs Felkel 40%
Felkel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolodziej 30% vs Felkel 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolodziej -3 · Felkel -1
Kolodziej
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Felkel) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Felkel form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolodziej 2.25 / Felkel 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Felkel)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13098532
Kolodziej2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 75 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back21% 24 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 63
Felkel1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 225 of 364
Up 2–0, closes it93% 126 of 136
Up 1–0, closes it79% 164 of 209
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolodziej3wins
AwayFelkel7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderFelkel leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolodziej25%1 of 4
AwayFelkel66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolodziej4Felkel6n = 10Felkel took 6 of 10
S2Kolodziej6Felkel4n = 10Kolodziej took 6 of 10
S3Kolodziej4Felkel6n = 10Felkel took 6 of 10
S4Kolodziej2Felkel7n = 9Felkel took 7 of 9
S5Kolodziej2Felkel3n = 5Felkel took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolodziejFelkelK − FBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.242.3−5.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolodziejFelkelBasisWin rate · lifetime1315 / 1958 vs 706 / 117867.2%59.9%1315 / 1958 vs 706 / 1178Avg sets wonper match2.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FelkelKolodziej 2.25/Felkel 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Felkel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kolodziej won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 23 · 10:50K. Kolodziej—911817123G. Felkel—1151115102
LJul 13 · 09:20K. Kolodziej—1211841G. Felkel—101311113
LJul 12 · 14:10K. Kolodziej—11114272G. Felkel—791111113
WJul 8 · 11:40K. Kolodziej—81111113G. Felkel—114721
LJun 29 · 14:10K. Kolodziej—5111161G. Felkel—11813113
WAug 6 · 19:00K. Kolodziej—1111107113G. Felkel—59121172
LJun 11 · 15:55K. Kolodziej—9450G. Felkel—1111113
LMay 26 · 15:55K. Kolodziej—91111632G. Felkel—117811113
LMay 19 · 17:00K. Kolodziej—11511652G. Felkel—411711113
LMay 10 · 18:40K. Kolodziej—461141G. Felkel—11118113
K. Kolodziej10
WSep 10 · 16:05M. Olbrycht3.50411651K. Kolodziej1.2811611113WSep 10 · 15:25K. Kolodziej1.331111113J. Chmielowski3.256690LSep 10 · 14:35K. Wloczko2.101111113K. Kolodziej1.679780WSep 10 · 13:20K. Kolodziej2.633G. Felkel1.442LSep 10 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.3671111113K. Kolodziej3.00115581WSep 10 · 10:50D. Michna1.8311117111K. Kolodziej1.8381311133LSep 10 · 09:20A. Grela1.4411116113K. Kolodziej2.63981151LSep 9 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.4461111113K. Kolodziej2.63116771LSep 9 · 11:40D. Michna1.83118119113K. Kolodziej1.8361191152LSep 9 · 10:50K. Kolodziej2.50281161A. Grela1.5011116113
G. Felkel10
LSep 10 · 14:10D. Michna1.83911911113G. Felkel1.8311611512LSep 10 · 13:20K. Kolodziej2.633G. Felkel1.442LSep 10 · 11:15A. Grela1.831211510113G. Felkel1.83107111272WSep 10 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.8311781122G. Felkel1.83611115113WSep 10 · 09:00K. Wloczko3.001149101G. Felkel1.3661111123LSep 10 · 08:10M. Miastowski2.5011811143G. Felkel1.502119121WSep 10 · 07:25D. Michna2.00126111182G. Felkel1.73141167113LSep 10 · 05:30K. Wloczko3.00511159143G. Felkel1.361171311122WSep 10 · 04:20M. Jadczyk2.20511114132G. Felkel1.61116911153WSep 10 · 03:00A. Grela2.00101141292G. Felkel1.731271110113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kolodziej
Sep 10 · 17:20K. Kolodziej1.28K. Staszczyk3.50—Sep 10 · 18:30K. Kolodziej1.36J. Mitas3.00—Sep 10 · 19:40K. Kolodziej1.80K. Kapik1.91—Sep 11 · 10:00K. Kolodziej1.73K. Strowski2.00—Sep 11 · 11:40K. Kolodziej2.75M. Jadczyk1.40—Sep 11 · 12:30K. Kolodziej2.00J. Kuzmicz1.73—Sep 11 · 14:35K. Kolodziej1.67K. Wloczko2.10—Sep 11 · 15:25K. Kolodziej2.38M. Olejnik1.53—
G. Felkel
Nothing scheduled
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