TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13104914
Played Sep 10Finished
Dawid Michna
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911116911115111
Grzegorz Felkel
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:17 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Felkel to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDawid Michna above · Grzegorz Felkel below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-1
Point 85 set 5, 11-1 — our read held Grzegorz Felkel at 54.1%
85 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Michna 29–28 Grzegorz Felkel Grzegorz Felkel has won 28 of their 57 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:17What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Felkel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-28 in 57
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michna 1929 vs Felkel 1906
Michna
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michna 40% vs Felkel 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michna 70% vs Felkel 50%
Michna
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michna -1 · Felkel -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Michna) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Felkel form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichna 1.83 / Felkel 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Michna)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13104914
Michna1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Felkel1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichna8wins
AwayFelkel2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMichna leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichna75%6 of 8
AwayFelkeln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michna8Felkel2n = 10Michna took 8 of 10
S2Michna7Felkel3n = 10Michna took 7 of 10
S3Michna7Felkel3n = 10Michna took 7 of 10
S4Michna4Felkel2n = 6Michna took 4 of 6
S5Michna2Felkel2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichnaFelkelM − FBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.734.1+6.6per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichnaFelkelBasisWin rate · lifetime532 / 979 vs 706 / 117754.3%60%532 / 979 vs 706 / 1177Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichnaMichna 1.83/Felkel 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Michna · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 09:00D. Michna—111111562G. Felkel—861311113
WSep 9 · 07:45D. Michna—1111113G. Felkel—9780
WAug 27 · 14:10D. Michna—91111113G. Felkel—114891
WAug 27 · 07:45D. Michna—61111113G. Felkel—119251
LAug 26 · 14:10D. Michna—11681182G. Felkel—911114113
WAug 26 · 07:20D. Michna—118811113G. Felkel—91111772
WAug 14 · 10:00D. Michna—1111113G. Felkel—9680
WAug 14 · 08:05D. Michna—119149113G. Felkel—311121192
WJul 28 · 10:25D. Michna—1111113G. Felkel—8960
WJul 28 · 07:20D. Michna—1213113G. Felkel—101150
D. Michna10
LSep 10 · 12:30A. Grela1.831171011113D. Michna1.8351112962WSep 10 · 11:40K. Wloczko1.915970D. Michna1.801111113LSep 10 · 10:50D. Michna1.8311117111K. Kolodziej1.8381311133WSep 10 · 09:40D. Michna2.101311113M. Jadczyk1.6711990LSep 10 · 08:35A. Grela1.671211113D. Michna2.1010990LSep 10 · 07:25D. Michna2.00126111182G. Felkel1.73141167113WSep 10 · 06:15M. Jadczyk1.6771111842D. Michna2.10117611113WSep 10 · 04:40M. Miastowski1.8311211962D. Michna1.83711811113WSep 10 · 03:20K. Wloczko2.10512631D. Michna1.67111011113WSep 9 · 14:35D. Michna2.0011911113A. Grela1.73711951
G. Felkel10
LSep 10 · 13:20K. Kolodziej2.633G. Felkel1.442LSep 10 · 11:15A. Grela1.831211510113G. Felkel1.83107111272WSep 10 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.8311781122G. Felkel1.83611115113WSep 10 · 09:00K. Wloczko3.001149101G. Felkel1.3661111123LSep 10 · 08:10M. Miastowski2.5011811143G. Felkel1.502119121WSep 10 · 07:25D. Michna2.00126111182G. Felkel1.73141167113LSep 10 · 05:30K. Wloczko3.00511159143G. Felkel1.361171311122WSep 10 · 04:20M. Jadczyk2.20511114132G. Felkel1.61116911153WSep 10 · 03:00A. Grela2.00101141292G. Felkel1.731271110113LSep 9 · 14:10K. Kolodziej2.251111123G. Felkel1.5788100
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