TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13103537
Played Sep 10Finished
Artur Grela
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121174111210911
Grzegorz Felkel
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Felkel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Grzegorz Felkel below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 97 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Grzegorz Felkel at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 58–67 Grzegorz Felkel Artur Grela has won 58 of their 125 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 14h before this match
Grela beat Felkel 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:47What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Felkel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
58-67 in 125
Felkel
Correct
gap of 9 in 125, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1899 vs Felkel 1903
Felkel
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 40% vs Felkel 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 70% vs Felkel 40%
Grela
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela -1 · Felkel -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Felkel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Felkel form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 2.00 / Felkel 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Felkel)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13103537
Grela2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 126 of 270
Down 0–1, comes back31% 45 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 55
Felkel1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 225 of 364
Up 2–0, closes it93% 126 of 136
Up 1–0, closes it79% 164 of 209
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrela6wins
AwayFelkel4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderGrela leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela60%3 of 5
AwayFelkel40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela5Felkel5n = 10split evenly
S2Grela6Felkel4n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S3Grela2Felkel8n = 10Felkel took 8 of 10
S4Grela5Felkel4n = 9Grela took 5 of 9
S5Grela4Felkel1n = 5Grela took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrelaFelkelG − FBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.642.4+1.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaFelkelBasisWin rate · lifetime636 / 1258 vs 707 / 117950.6%60%636 / 1258 vs 707 / 1179Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FelkelGrela 2.00/Felkel 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Felkel · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Felkel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 13:20A. Grela—6111111143G. Felkel—116135122
WSep 9 · 06:30A. Grela—711411113G. Felkel—11911682
WAug 27 · 11:15A. Grela—121011113G. Felkel—1012581
LAug 27 · 06:55A. Grela—9780G. Felkel—1111113
WAug 26 · 11:40A. Grela—812711123G. Felkel—1110116102
LAug 26 · 04:55A. Grela—11119882G. Felkel—651111113
WAug 20 · 03:25A. Grela—11713113G. Felkel—4111181
WAug 14 · 14:35A. Grela—1112109113G. Felkel—910121162
LAug 14 · 05:15A. Grela—11813101G. Felkel—81115123
LJul 30 · 03:25A. Grela—7128101G. Felkel—111011123
A. Grela10
LSep 9 · 14:35D. Michna2.0011911113A. Grela1.73711951WSep 9 · 13:20A. Grela1.836111111143G. Felkel1.83116135122LSep 9 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.73119711113A. Grela2.0021111482WSep 9 · 10:50K. Kolodziej2.50281161A. Grela1.5011116113LSep 9 · 09:20A. Wiecek1.67117137133A. Grela2.104111111112WSep 9 · 08:05A. Grela1.531111133K. Wloczko2.3887110WSep 9 · 06:30G. Felkel1.7311911682A. Grela2.00711411113WSep 9 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.8396121162A. Grela1.831111108113WSep 9 · 04:55A. Grela1.80111213113T. Spanik1.916141181WSep 9 · 03:45A. Grela1.67981111113D. Michna2.1011118952
G. Felkel10
LSep 9 · 14:10K. Kolodziej2.251111123G. Felkel1.5788100LSep 9 · 13:20A. Grela1.836111111143G. Felkel1.83116135122WSep 9 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.739117121G. Felkel2.0011711143LSep 9 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.9161111113G. Felkel1.80119751WSep 9 · 09:00D. Michna2.25111111562G. Felkel1.57861311113LSep 9 · 07:45G. Felkel1.579780D. Michna2.251111113LSep 9 · 06:30G. Felkel1.7311911682A. Grela2.00711411113LSep 9 · 05:15G. Felkel1.36512111092K. Wloczko3.001110912113WSep 9 · 04:10A. Wiecek1.73911451G. Felkel2.0011811113WSep 9 · 03:25G. Felkel1.917141011113T. Spanik1.80111212632
Upcoming Matches
A. Grela
Sep 10 · 05:50A. Grela1.83M. Miastowski1.83—Sep 10 · 07:00A. Grela1.83M. Jadczyk1.83—Sep 10 · 08:35A. Grela1.67D. Michna2.10—Sep 10 · 09:20A. Grela1.50K. Kolodziej2.50—Sep 10 · 10:00A. Grela1.53K. Wloczko2.38—Sep 10 · 11:15A. Grela1.83G. Felkel1.83—Sep 10 · 12:30A. Grela1.67D. Michna2.10—Sep 10 · 13:45A. Grela1.83M. Jadczyk1.83—
G. Felkel
Sep 10 · 04:20G. Felkel1.73M. Jadczyk2.00—Sep 10 · 05:30G. Felkel1.36K. Wloczko3.00—Sep 10 · 07:25G. Felkel1.73D. Michna2.00—Sep 10 · 08:10G. Felkel1.50M. Miastowski2.50—Sep 10 · 09:00G. Felkel1.36K. Wloczko3.00—Sep 10 · 10:25G. Felkel1.73M. Jadczyk2.00—Sep 10 · 11:15G. Felkel1.83A. Grela1.83—Sep 10 · 13:20G. Felkel1.44K. Kolodziej2.63—Sep 10 · 14:10G. Felkel1.73D. Michna2.00—
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