TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098597
Played Sep 9Finished
Artur Grela
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
61111611131151412
Grzegorz Felkel
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Felkel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Grzegorz Felkel below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 100 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Grzegorz Felkel at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 57–67 Grzegorz Felkel Artur Grela has won 57 of their 124 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Grela beat Felkel 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:19What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Felkel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
57-67 in 124
Felkel
Wrong
gap of 10 in 124, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1923 vs Felkel 1932
Felkel
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 60% vs Felkel 40%
Grela
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 60% vs Felkel 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela -1 · Felkel +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Grela) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Felkel form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 1.83 / Felkel 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Grela)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13098597
Grela1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Felkel1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrela6wins
AwayFelkel4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGrela leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela66.7%4 of 6
AwayFelkel50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela6Felkel4n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S2Grela6Felkel4n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S3Grela2Felkel8n = 10Felkel took 8 of 10
S4Grela5Felkel4n = 9Grela took 5 of 9
S5Grela3Felkel1n = 4Grela took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrelaFelkelG − FBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.640.9+1.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaFelkelBasisWin rate · lifetime635 / 1255 vs 706 / 117650.6%60%635 / 1255 vs 706 / 1176Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrelaGrela 1.83/Felkel 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Grela · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Grela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 06:30A. Grela—711411113G. Felkel—11911682
WAug 27 · 11:15A. Grela—121011113G. Felkel—1012581
LAug 27 · 06:55A. Grela—9780G. Felkel—1111113
WAug 26 · 11:40A. Grela—812711123G. Felkel—1110116102
LAug 26 · 04:55A. Grela—11119882G. Felkel—651111113
WAug 20 · 03:25A. Grela—11713113G. Felkel—4111181
WAug 14 · 14:35A. Grela—1112109113G. Felkel—910121162
LAug 14 · 05:15A. Grela—11813101G. Felkel—81115123
LJul 30 · 03:25A. Grela—7128101G. Felkel—111011123
WJul 12 · 13:20A. Grela—111110113G. Felkel—741291
A. Grela10
LSep 9 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.73119711113A. Grela2.0021111482WSep 9 · 10:50K. Kolodziej2.50281161A. Grela1.5011116113LSep 9 · 09:20A. Wiecek1.67117137133A. Grela2.104111111112WSep 9 · 08:05A. Grela1.531111133K. Wloczko2.3887110WSep 9 · 06:30G. Felkel1.7311911682A. Grela2.00711411113WSep 9 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.8396121162A. Grela1.831111108113WSep 9 · 04:55A. Grela1.80111213113T. Spanik1.916141181WSep 9 · 03:45A. Grela1.67981111113D. Michna2.1011118952LSep 5 · 13:45A. Grela1.8391111492S. Kolasa1.83117811113LSep 5 · 12:30A. Grela1.5314381142M. Nowalinski2.381211114113
G. Felkel10
WSep 9 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.739117121G. Felkel2.0011711143LSep 9 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.9161111113G. Felkel1.80119751WSep 9 · 09:00D. Michna2.25111111562G. Felkel1.57861311113LSep 9 · 07:45G. Felkel1.579780D. Michna2.251111113LSep 9 · 06:30G. Felkel1.7311911682A. Grela2.00711411113LSep 9 · 05:15G. Felkel1.36512111092K. Wloczko3.001110912113WSep 9 · 04:10A. Wiecek1.73911451G. Felkel2.0011811113WSep 9 · 03:25G. Felkel1.917141011113T. Spanik1.80111212632LAug 27 · 14:10D. Michna2.2091111113G. Felkel1.61114891WAug 27 · 13:20K. Kolodziej2.5010560G. Felkel1.501211113
Upcoming Matches
A. Grela
Sep 9 · 14:35A. Grela1.73D. Michna2.00—Sep 10 · 03:00A. Grela2.00G. Felkel1.73—Sep 10 · 04:00A. Grela1.53K. Wloczko2.38—Sep 10 · 07:00A. Grela1.83M. Jadczyk1.83—Sep 10 · 08:35A. Grela1.73D. Michna2.00—Sep 10 · 09:20A. Grela1.44K. Kolodziej2.63—Sep 10 · 10:00A. Grela1.53K. Wloczko2.38—Sep 10 · 11:15A. Grela2.00G. Felkel1.73—Sep 10 · 12:30A. Grela1.73D. Michna2.00—Sep 10 · 13:45A. Grela—M. Jadczyk——
G. Felkel
Sep 9 · 14:10G. Felkel1.57K. Kolodziej2.25—Sep 10 · 03:00G. Felkel1.73A. Grela2.00—Sep 10 · 04:20G. Felkel1.73M. Jadczyk2.00—Sep 10 · 05:30G. Felkel1.36K. Wloczko3.00—Sep 10 · 07:25G. Felkel1.73D. Michna2.00—Sep 10 · 08:10G. Felkel1.50M. Miastowski2.50—Sep 10 · 10:25G. Felkel1.73M. Jadczyk2.00—Sep 10 · 11:15G. Felkel1.73A. Grela2.00—Sep 10 · 13:20G. Felkel1.57K. Kolodziej2.25—
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