TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098604
Played Sep 9Finished
Adrian Wiecek
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611116117117––
Krystian Kolodziej
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:20 and never touched — 72.5% is still 72.5%
Graded at full timeAdrian Wiecek to win
72.5%
72.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Krystian Kolodziej below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 70 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Adrian Wiecek at 72.5%
70 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Wiecek 21–7 Krystian Kolodziej Krystian Kolodziej has won 7 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:20What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Wiecek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-7 in 28
Wiecek
Correct
gap of 14 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wiecek 1899 vs Kolodziej 1857
Wiecek
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wiecek 80% vs Kolodziej 20%
Wiecek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wiecek 60% vs Kolodziej 40%
Wiecek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wiecek -1 · Kolodziej -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Wiecek) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolodziej form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWiecek 1.44 / Kolodziej 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Wiecek)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13098604
Wiecek1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 203 of 327
Up 2–0, closes it95% 83 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it80% 148 of 186
Kolodziej2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 75 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back21% 24 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWiecek8wins
AwayKolodziej2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderWiecek leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWiecek87.5%7 of 8
AwayKolodziejn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wiecek8Kolodziej2n = 10Wiecek took 8 of 10
S2Wiecek8Kolodziej2n = 10Wiecek took 8 of 10
S3Wiecek6Kolodziej4n = 10Wiecek took 6 of 10
S4Wiecek4Kolodziej3n = 7Wiecek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWiecekKolodziejW − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.635.1+4.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWiecekKolodziejBasisWin rate · lifetime781 / 1417 vs 1314 / 195655.1%67.2%781 / 1417 vs 1314 / 1956Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match40.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WiecekWiecek 1.44/Kolodziej 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Wiecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Wiecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 11 · 15:30A. Wiecek—1111113K. Kolodziej—8890
WApr 13 · 18:15A. Wiecek—61111113K. Kolodziej—117891
WApr 6 · 17:00A. Wiecek—11115143K. Kolodziej—9411121
LMar 30 · 18:35A. Wiecek—11712962K. Kolodziej—5111011113
WMar 23 · 16:55A. Wiecek—11118123K. Kolodziej—9411101
LMar 16 · 16:55A. Wiecek—1091391K. Kolodziej—121111113
WMar 9 · 19:15A. Wiecek—1112113K. Kolodziej—91090
WMar 2 · 17:40A. Wiecek—11119113K. Kolodziej—871191
WFeb 18 · 16:55A. Wiecek—1211103K. Kolodziej—10750
WFeb 9 · 20:00A. Wiecek—111158113K. Kolodziej—97111152
A. Wiecek10
LSep 9 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.739117121G. Felkel2.0011711143WSep 9 · 10:00D. Michna2.10411411112A. Wiecek1.67114119133WSep 9 · 09:20A. Wiecek1.67117137133A. Grela2.104111111112WSep 9 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.611114116113T. Spanik2.2091671162WSep 9 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.6191111113D. Michna2.20118591LSep 9 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.8396121162A. Grela1.831111108113LSep 9 · 04:10A. Wiecek1.73911451G. Felkel2.0011811113WSep 9 · 03:00A. Wiecek1.33111178143K. Wloczko3.25971111122LSep 8 · 14:35T. Spanik1.73101111113A. Wiecek2.00129781WSep 8 · 13:20A. Wiecek1.361011177113K. Kolodziej3.00127151172
K. Kolodziej10
LSep 9 · 11:40D. Michna1.83118119113K. Kolodziej1.8361191152LSep 9 · 10:50K. Kolodziej2.50281161A. Grela1.5011116113WSep 9 · 09:40K. Kolodziej2.751111113M. Jadczyk1.404960LSep 8 · 14:10K. Wloczko1.8071111113K. Kolodziej1.91119991LSep 8 · 13:20A. Wiecek1.361011177113K. Kolodziej3.00127151172WSep 8 · 11:15J. Kosowski1.3311711142K. Kolodziej3.25911911113WSep 8 · 10:25M. Olejnik1.50111111792K. Kolodziej2.50136811113LSep 8 · 09:00T. Spanik1.611113113K. Kolodziej2.2051180LSep 7 · 12:30S. Kolasa1.734111110113K. Kolodziej2.0011251282WSep 7 · 11:40P. David1.3061381162K. Kolodziej3.401111115113
Upcoming Matches
A. Wiecek
K. Kolodziej2 of 10 neutral
Sep 9 · 14:10K. Kolodziej2.25G. Felkel1.57—Sep 10 · 09:20K. Kolodziej2.63A. Grela1.44—Sep 10 · 10:50K. Kolodziej1.83D. Michna1.83—Sep 10 · 12:05K. Kolodziej3.00M. Jadczyk1.36—Sep 10 · 13:20K. Kolodziej2.25G. Felkel1.57—Sep 10 · 14:35K. Kolodziej1.67K. Wloczko2.10—Sep 10 · 15:25K. Kolodziej—J. Chmielowski——Sep 10 · 16:05K. Kolodziej—M. Olbrycht——Sep 10 · 17:20K. Kolodziej—K. Staszczyk——Sep 10 · 18:30K. Kolodziej—J. Mitas——
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