TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13111537
Played Sep 11Finished
Maciej Kolek
Home
2.55
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210119411115––
Maciej Nowalinski
Away
1.42
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:03 and never touched — 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
1210119411115––
H2H Maciej Kolek 1–1 Maciej Nowalinski Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:03What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.42 (64%)
Nowalinski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1627 vs Nowalinski 1736
Nowalinski
Wrong
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 60% vs Nowalinski 40%
Kolek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 50% vs Nowalinski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek -1 · Nowalinski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Nowalinski) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowalinski form (40%) is below what odds imply (70%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 2.55 / Nowalinski 1.42
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Nowalinski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13111537
Kolek2.55
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 185 of 465
Down 0–1, comes back22% 60 of 277
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 125
Nowalinski1.42
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 187 of 308
Up 2–0, closes it100% 63 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it84% 136 of 162
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKolek1wins
AwayNowalinski1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKolekNowalinskiK − NBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match38.537.5+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekNowalinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime682 / 1376 vs 820 / 170849.6%48%682 / 1376 vs 820 / 1708Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NowalinskiKolek 2.55/Nowalinski 1.42
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67%
Nowalinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJun 23 · 05:15M. Kolek—11611113M. Nowalinski—511881
LFeb 11 · 20:25M. Kolek—12101151M. Nowalinski—14126113
M. Kolek10
WSep 11 · 13:00D. Kosmal1.70381191M. Kolek1.9511118113WSep 11 · 12:10M. Kolek2.4091111113K. Wisniewski1.47114461LSep 11 · 09:45M. Miastowski1.3791112113M. Kolek2.701191081WSep 11 · 24:10J. Chmielowski1.831168121M. Kolek1.8381111143WSep 10 · 23:45M. Kolek2.381111113K. Kapik1.537570WSep 10 · 22:55M. Kolek2.10111176113J. Mitas1.6786111172LSep 10 · 21:00M. Kolek2.381110761M. Olbrycht1.5381211113WSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113LSep 5 · 24:45M. Kolek3.0088121162J. Kuzmicz1.361111108113WSep 4 · 23:55M. Kolek2.1011911113T. Filbrandt1.67411791
M. Nowalinski10
WSep 11 · 11:20K. Staszczyk2.6586111412M. Nowalinski1.381111712113WSep 11 · 09:00D. Kosmal2.75611761M. Nowalinski1.3611611113LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113
Upcoming Matches
M. Kolek
M. Nowalinski
Sep 11 · 13:25M. Nowalinski1.42K. Wisniewski2.55—Sep 11 · 14:15M. Nowalinski1.92M. Miastowski1.73—Sep 11 · 16:05M. Nowalinski1.51P. Jendrzejewski2.28—Sep 11 · 17:40M. Nowalinski1.38J. Mitas2.70—Sep 11 · 18:30M. Nowalinski1.83K. Strowski1.83—Sep 11 · 20:30M. Nowalinski1.38T. Filbrandt2.65—Sep 11 · 21:20M. Nowalinski1.50M. Marchlewski2.50—
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.