TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13104864
Played Sep 11Finished
Jakub Chmielowski
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1186118111214––
Maciej Kolek
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:07 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeJakub Chmielowski to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Chmielowski above · Maciej Kolek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 81 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Jakub Chmielowski at 58.9%
81 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Chmielowski 8–7 Maciej Kolek Maciej Kolek has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:07What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kolek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-7 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmielowski 1620 vs Kolek 1621
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmielowski 40% vs Kolek 60%
Kolek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmielowski 40% vs Kolek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmielowski +2 · Kolek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolek) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmielowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmielowski 1.83 / Kolek 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kolek)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13104864
Chmielowski1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Kolek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmielowski5wins
AwayKolek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmielowski75%3 of 4
AwayKolek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmielowski4Kolek6n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S2Chmielowski3Kolek7n = 10Kolek took 7 of 10
S3Chmielowski6Kolek4n = 10Chmielowski took 6 of 10
S4Chmielowski3Kolek5n = 8Kolek took 5 of 8
S5Chmielowski3Kolek1n = 4Chmielowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmielowskiKolekC − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.341.9+0.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmielowskiKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime360 / 739 vs 681 / 137448.7%49.6%360 / 739 vs 681 / 1374Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolekChmielowski 1.83/Kolek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 26 · 12:10J. Chmielowski—14911113M. Kolek—1211391
WJun 25 · 08:05J. Chmielowski—6111113113M. Kolek—11841572
WJun 25 · 05:35J. Chmielowski—61111113M. Kolek—114921
LJun 19 · 09:00J. Chmielowski—115581M. Kolek—61111113
LJun 19 · 08:05J. Chmielowski—9680M. Kolek—1111113
WJun 19 · 05:35J. Chmielowski—11121110113M. Kolek—71471282
WJun 10 · 13:05J. Chmielowski—122099113M. Kolek—1018111162
LJun 10 · 04:55J. Chmielowski—991181M. Kolek—11117113
LApr 19 · 21:35J. Chmielowski—91790M. Kolek—1119113
LFeb 22 · 01:45J. Chmielowski—75111772M. Kolek—1111815113
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 10 · 23:20J. Chmielowski1.911111107113M. Olbrycht1.8099121152WSep 10 · 21:50J. Chmielowski1.801211113K. Kapik1.9110760LSep 10 · 21:25J. Chmielowski1.671161171J. Mitas2.1041113113LSep 10 · 20:30M. Olbrycht1.8081312123J. Chmielowski1.91111110101LSep 10 · 19:15J. Chmielowski1.9168111192K. Staszczyk1.80111139113WSep 10 · 18:05K. Kapik1.8311411312J. Chmielowski1.83811711113WSep 10 · 16:55J. Mitas2.1081090J. Chmielowski1.671112113LSep 10 · 15:25K. Kolodziej1.331111113J. Chmielowski3.256690LSep 10 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.5031112113J. Chmielowski2.501191071LSep 9 · 23:45J. Chmielowski2.00117612102K. Staszczyk1.739111110123
M. Kolek10
WSep 10 · 23:45M. Kolek2.381111113K. Kapik1.537570WSep 10 · 22:55M. Kolek2.10111176113J. Mitas1.6786111172LSep 10 · 21:00M. Kolek2.381110761M. Olbrycht1.5381211113WSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113LSep 5 · 24:45M. Kolek3.0088121162J. Kuzmicz1.361111108113WSep 4 · 23:55M. Kolek2.1011911113T. Filbrandt1.67411791LSep 4 · 22:05M. Kolek2.38791121P. Jendrzejewski1.5311116113LSep 4 · 21:20T. Filbrandt1.6711411113M. Kolek2.10711491LSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961WSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel1.30123561M. Kolek3.40101111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Chmielowski
Nothing scheduled
M. Kolek2 of 5 neutral
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