TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13104871
Played Sep 10Finished
Jacek Mitas
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111012911––––
Jakub Chmielowski
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:10 and never touched — 61.8% is still 61.8%
Graded at full timeJakub Chmielowski to win
61.8%
61.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJacek Mitas above · Jakub Chmielowski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 61 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Jakub Chmielowski at 61.8%
61 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:10What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Chmielowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Mitas 1621 vs Chmielowski 1597
Mitas
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitas 40% vs Chmielowski 20%
Mitas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitas 50% vs Chmielowski 30%
Mitas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitas +1 · Chmielowski -4
Chmielowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmielowski) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmielowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitas 2.10 / Chmielowski 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chmielowski)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13104871
Mitas2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 44 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 46
Chmielowski1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 119 of 212
Up 2–0, closes it90% 53 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it72% 95 of 132
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitasChmielowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 224 vs 356 / 73246.4%48.6%104 / 224 vs 356 / 732Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.839.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmielowskiMitas 2.10/Chmielowski 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chmielowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chmielowski won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
J. Mitas10
LSep 10 · 17:40M. Olbrycht1.671111113J. Mitas2.104780WSep 10 · 15:45J. Mitas1.8311711113K. Kapik1.83911451LAug 29 · 01:10J. Mitas1.50813451D. Solilo2.50111111113LAug 29 · 24:20J. Mitas1.5081461152K. Rudomina2.501112115113WAug 28 · 22:50J. Mitas2.501111113M. Rutkowski1.508980LAug 28 · 22:30J. Mitas2.10951171S. Sporek1.6711119113WAug 28 · 21:45T. Filbrandt1.91691151J. Mitas1.8011118113LAug 28 · 20:30J. Mitas3.406560K. Kolodziej1.301111113WAug 28 · 19:15S. Sporek1.6711111091J. Mitas2.1051312113WAug 28 · 18:05M. Rutkowski1.801271151J. Mitas1.9114117113
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 10 · 18:05K. Kapik1.8311411312J. Chmielowski1.83811711113LSep 10 · 15:25K. Kolodziej1.331111113J. Chmielowski3.256690LSep 10 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.5031112113J. Chmielowski2.501191071LSep 9 · 23:45J. Chmielowski2.00117612102K. Staszczyk1.739111110123LSep 9 · 22:55J. Chmielowski2.0099120M. Olbrycht1.731111143WSep 9 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.571311113K. Kapik2.2511680LSep 9 · 20:30J. Chmielowski1.331310111172J. Krawczyk3.25151289113WSep 9 · 18:50J. Chmielowski4.33761211113M. Benes1.20111110792WSep 9 · 17:40J. Chmielowski2.00611116113M. Olbrycht1.7311581162LSep 9 · 16:05J. Chmielowski2.5051390A. Daniel1.501115113
Upcoming Matches
J. Mitas2 of 10 neutral
Sep 10 · 20:05J. Mitas2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 10 · 21:25J. Mitas2.10J. Chmielowski1.67—Sep 10 · 22:10J. Mitas2.10M. Olbrycht1.67—Sep 10 · 22:55J. Mitas1.61M. Kolek2.20—Sep 11 · 24:35J. Mitas1.83K. Kapik1.83—Sep 11 · 16:55J. Mitas—M. Marchlewski——Sep 11 · 17:40J. Mitas—M. Nowalinski——Sep 11 · 19:15J. Mitas—T. Filbrandt——Sep 11 · 20:05J. Mitas—P. Jendrzejewski——Sep 11 · 21:00J. Mitas—K. Strowski——
J. Chmielowski
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