TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13103072
Played Sep 9Finished
Jakub Chmielowski
Home
4.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7116111210117119
Michal Benes
Away
1.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Chmielowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Chmielowski above · Michal Benes below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Jakub Chmielowski at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Chmielowski 0–1 Michal Benes Jakub Chmielowski has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:47What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Benes
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Chmielowski 1602 vs Benes 1871
Benes
Wrong
both rated, 269 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmielowski 60% vs Benes 80%
Benes
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmielowski 60% vs Benes 80%
Benes
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmielowski +1 · Benes +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Benes) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmielowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmielowski 4.33 / Benes 1.20
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Benes)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13103072
Chmielowski4.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 76 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back23% 26 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 65
Benes1.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 42 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it77% 37 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeChmielowski0wins
AwayBenes1wins
Benes leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricChmielowskiBenesC − BBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match17.033.0−16.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmielowskiBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime354 / 725 vs 113 / 21848.8%51.8%354 / 725 vs 113 / 218Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.435.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesChmielowski 4.33/Benes 1.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
81.1%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chmielowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 3 · 19:15J. Chmielowski—7370M. Benes—1111113
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 9 · 17:40J. Chmielowski2.00611116113M. Olbrycht1.7311581162LSep 9 · 16:05J. Chmielowski2.5051390A. Daniel1.501115113LSep 9 · 15:00J. Chmielowski4.337620J. Braun1.201111113WSep 3 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.6161161182J. Chmielowski2.20118117113WSep 3 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311814992J. Chmielowski1.836111211113WSep 3 · 22:10J. Chmielowski2.50115911153M. Rutkowski1.50911115132WSep 3 · 21:00J. Glanowski2.7511631152J. Chmielowski1.40811118113WSep 3 · 20:30P. Klos1.1788111192J. Chmielowski4.50111147113LSep 3 · 19:15J. Chmielowski4.007370M. Benes1.221111113LSep 3 · 18:05A. Daniel1.53613312113J. Chmielowski2.381111111022
M. Benes10
WSep 9 · 19:40A. Daniel2.388360M. Benes1.531111113WSep 9 · 18:05M. Benes1.221111113J. Krawczyk4.009360LSep 9 · 16:30M. Benes1.837118121J. Braun1.8311811143WSep 9 · 15:45M. Olbrycht5.005850M. Benes1.141111113WSep 9 · 14:35A. Daniel2.10101231142M. Benes1.601210117113WSep 9 · 13:25M. Benes1.411115113K. Wisniewski2.6061330LSep 9 · 12:10J. Kuzmicz1.88971113113M. Benes1.82111191152WSep 9 · 10:55J. Braun1.856911101M. Benes1.8011115123WSep 9 · 09:20T. Spanik1.54116861M. Benes2.2561111113WSep 3 · 19:15J. Chmielowski4.007370M. Benes1.221111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Chmielowski2 of 10 neutral
Sep 9 · 20:30J. Chmielowski1.33J. Krawczyk3.25—Sep 9 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.57K. Kapik2.25—Sep 9 · 22:55J. Chmielowski2.00M. Olbrycht1.73—Sep 9 · 23:45J. Chmielowski2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 10 · 24:10J. Chmielowski2.50M. Rutkowski1.50—Sep 10 · 15:25J. Chmielowski—K. Kolodziej——Sep 10 · 16:55J. Chmielowski—J. Mitas——Sep 10 · 18:05J. Chmielowski—K. Kapik——Sep 10 · 19:15J. Chmielowski—K. Staszczyk——Sep 10 · 20:30J. Chmielowski—M. Olbrycht——
M. Benes
Nothing scheduled
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