TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13099481
Played Sep 9Finished
Artur Daniel
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811311611––––
Michal Benes
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:28 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Benes to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Daniel above · Michal Benes below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 50 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Michal Benes at 70.7%
50 points played in total.
H2H Artur Daniel 1–7 Michal Benes Artur Daniel has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Benes beat Daniel 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:28What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-7 in 8
Benes
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Daniel 1755 vs Benes 1852
Benes
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Daniel 60% vs Benes 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Daniel 60% vs Benes 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Daniel +1 · Benes -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Benes) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Daniel form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDaniel 2.38 / Benes 1.53
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Benes)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13099481
Daniel2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 81 of 232
Down 0–1, comes back21% 28 of 135
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 66
Benes1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 42 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it77% 37 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeDaniel1wins
AwayBenes7wins
2 of 8 to a deciderBenes leads 7–1, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDanieln = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayBenes87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Daniel0Benes8n = 8Benes took 8 of 8
S2Daniel4Benes4n = 8split evenly
S3Daniel2Benes6n = 8Benes took 6 of 8
S4Daniel3Benes2n = 5Daniel took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricDanielBenesD − BBasisWins17−6in 8 meetingsFirst set08−8of 8Avg pointsper match30.239.0−8.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanielBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime784 / 1474 vs 113 / 21953.2%51.6%784 / 1474 vs 113 / 219Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.035.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesDaniel 2.38/Benes 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.2%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 9 · 14:35A. Daniel—101231142M. Benes—1210117113
WSep 3 · 16:30A. Daniel—81111113M. Benes—119931
LSep 3 · 13:25A. Daniel—610111172M. Benes—111278113
LDec 18 · 21:10A. Daniel—611391M. Benes—11811113
LMay 15 · 16:40A. Daniel—8190M. Benes—1111113
LMar 2 · 21:40A. Daniel—911451M. Benes—11511113
LFeb 22 · 13:25A. Daniel—8630M. Benes—1111113
LFeb 22 · 05:00A. Daniel—51170M. Benes—1113113
A. Daniel10
WSep 9 · 18:30A. Daniel1.61111111113M. Olbrycht2.20681361LSep 9 · 17:20A. Daniel2.201341031J. Braun1.61111112113WSep 9 · 16:05J. Chmielowski2.5051390A. Daniel1.501115113WSep 9 · 15:25A. Daniel1.2811711113J. Krawczyk3.50611891LSep 9 · 14:35A. Daniel2.10101231142M. Benes1.601210117113LSep 9 · 13:00A. Daniel1.83112661J. Kuzmicz1.8661111113WSep 9 · 11:45A. Daniel2.2561211123J. Braun1.5411105101LSep 9 · 10:05A. Daniel2.608870T. Spanik1.441111113WSep 9 · 09:00A. Daniel1.5311116113K. Wisniewski2.23261161WSep 8 · 19:40A. Daniel1.61116136113K. Glazowski2.20911111192
M. Benes10
LSep 9 · 18:50J. Chmielowski4.33761211113M. Benes1.20111110792WSep 9 · 18:05M. Benes1.221111113J. Krawczyk4.009360LSep 9 · 16:30M. Benes1.837118121J. Braun1.8311811143WSep 9 · 15:45M. Olbrycht5.005850M. Benes1.141111113WSep 9 · 14:35A. Daniel2.10101231142M. Benes1.601210117113WSep 9 · 13:25M. Benes1.411115113K. Wisniewski2.6061330LSep 9 · 12:10J. Kuzmicz1.88971113113M. Benes1.82111191152WSep 9 · 10:55J. Braun1.856911101M. Benes1.8011115123WSep 9 · 09:20T. Spanik1.54116861M. Benes2.2561111113WSep 3 · 20:05J. Witkowski5.00411581M. Benes1.1411911113
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