TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13102690
Played Sep 9Finished
Jakub Chmielowski
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611115118611116
Michal Olbrycht
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:46 and never touched — 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Chmielowski to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Chmielowski above · Michal Olbrycht below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 86 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Jakub Chmielowski at 55.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Chmielowski 4–3 Michal Olbrycht Michal Olbrycht has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:46What took a side0 for · 2 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Olbrycht
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmielowski 1589 vs Olbrycht 1661
Olbrycht
Wrong
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmielowski 60% vs Olbrycht 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmielowski 50% vs Olbrycht 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmielowski -2 · Olbrycht +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Olbrycht) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmielowski 2.00 / Olbrycht 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Olbrycht)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13102690
Chmielowski2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 76 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back23% 26 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 65
Olbrycht1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 98 of 161
Up 2–0, closes it95% 40 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it84% 71 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeChmielowski4wins
AwayOlbrycht3wins
4 of 7 to a deciderChmielowski leads 4–3, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmielowski80%4 of 5
AwayOlbrychtn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmielowski5Olbrycht2n = 7Chmielowski took 5 of 7
S2Chmielowski3Olbrycht4n = 7Olbrycht took 4 of 7
S3Chmielowski3Olbrycht4n = 7Olbrycht took 4 of 7
S4Chmielowski2Olbrycht5n = 7Olbrycht took 5 of 7
S5Chmielowski3Olbrycht1n = 4Chmielowski took 3 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricChmielowskiOlbrychtC − OBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match45.442.0+3.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmielowskiOlbrychtBasisWin rate · lifetime353 / 724 vs 358 / 75348.8%47.5%353 / 724 vs 358 / 753Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.437.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OlbrychtChmielowski 2.00/Olbrycht 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Olbrycht · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chmielowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 2 · 21:25J. Chmielowski—118871M. Olbrycht—71111113
WSep 2 · 16:55J. Chmielowski—111498113M. Olbrycht—912111162
WAug 11 · 21:25J. Chmielowski—1112118113M. Olbrycht—41471132
LAug 11 · 16:55J. Chmielowski—1011981M. Olbrycht—12811113
WFeb 22 · 24:30J. Chmielowski—119711113M. Olbrycht—91111682
WFeb 21 · 22:35J. Chmielowski—111111113M. Olbrycht—613561
LJul 15 · 20:35J. Chmielowski—81111982M. Olbrycht—119711113
J. Chmielowski10
LSep 9 · 16:05J. Chmielowski2.5051390A. Daniel1.501115113LSep 9 · 15:00J. Chmielowski4.337620J. Braun1.201111113WSep 3 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.6161161182J. Chmielowski2.20118117113WSep 3 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311814992J. Chmielowski1.836111211113WSep 3 · 22:10J. Chmielowski2.50115911153M. Rutkowski1.50911115132WSep 3 · 21:00J. Glanowski2.7511631152J. Chmielowski1.40811118113WSep 3 · 20:30P. Klos1.1788111192J. Chmielowski4.50111147113LSep 3 · 19:15J. Chmielowski4.007370M. Benes1.221111113LSep 3 · 18:05A. Daniel1.53613312113J. Chmielowski2.381111111022LSep 3 · 16:55J. Witkowski1.80911611113J. Chmielowski1.9111811472
M. Olbrycht10
WSep 9 · 16:55M. Olbrycht1.201111113J. Krawczyk4.337890LSep 9 · 15:45M. Olbrycht5.005850M. Benes1.141111113WSep 3 · 24:35M. Rutkowski1.83911861M. Olbrycht1.8311711113LSep 2 · 22:55J. Kuzmicz1.3612119113M. Olbrycht3.001091131WSep 2 · 22:10L. Pietraszko2.108330M. Olbrycht1.671111113WSep 2 · 21:25J. Chmielowski2.20118871M. Olbrycht1.6171111113WSep 2 · 20:05M. Olbrycht1.83611116113K. Kapik1.8311981182LSep 2 · 18:30A. Spychala1.73119411113M. Olbrycht2.0031111772LSep 2 · 17:40L. Pietraszko2.001211113M. Olbrycht1.7310660LSep 2 · 16:55M. Olbrycht1.73912111162J. Chmielowski2.00111498113
Upcoming Matches
J. Chmielowski1 of 10 neutral
Sep 9 · 18:50J. Chmielowski4.33M. Benes1.20—Sep 9 · 20:30J. Chmielowski1.33J. Krawczyk3.25—Sep 9 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.57K. Kapik2.25—Sep 9 · 22:55J. Chmielowski2.00M. Olbrycht1.73—Sep 9 · 23:45J. Chmielowski2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 10 · 24:10J. Chmielowski2.50M. Rutkowski1.50—Sep 10 · 15:25J. Chmielowski—K. Kolodziej——Sep 10 · 16:55J. Chmielowski—J. Mitas——Sep 10 · 18:05J. Chmielowski—K. Kapik——Sep 10 · 19:15J. Chmielowski—K. Staszczyk——
M. Olbrycht
Sep 9 · 18:30M. Olbrycht2.20A. Daniel1.61—Sep 9 · 20:05M. Olbrycht3.40J. Braun1.30—Sep 9 · 21:25M. Olbrycht2.38M. Rutkowski1.53—Sep 9 · 22:10M. Olbrycht1.83K. Kapik1.83—Sep 9 · 22:55M. Olbrycht1.73J. Chmielowski2.00—Sep 10 · 24:35M. Olbrycht2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 10 · 15:00M. Olbrycht—K. Staszczyk——Sep 10 · 16:05M. Olbrycht—K. Kolodziej——Sep 10 · 17:40M. Olbrycht—J. Mitas——Sep 10 · 18:50M. Olbrycht1.60K. Kapik2.20—
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