TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13030549
Played Aug 28Finished
Mateusz Rutkowski
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1214711117511––
Jacek Mitas
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:03 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMateusz Rutkowski above · Jacek Mitas below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 78 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Mateusz Rutkowski at 57.9%
78 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 10–6 Jacek Mitas Jacek Mitas has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:03What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Rutkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Rutkowski
Wrong
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1832 vs Mitas 1596
Rutkowski
Wrong
both rated, 236 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 80% vs Mitas 40%
Rutkowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 80% vs Mitas 40%
Rutkowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski +4 · Mitas -1
Rutkowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitas form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 1.80 / Mitas 1.91
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Rutkowski)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13030549
Rutkowski1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 386 of 557
Up 2–0, closes it96% 187 of 194
Up 1–0, closes it88% 311 of 353
Mitas1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 41 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back19% 13 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRutkowski6wins
AwayMitas4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRutkowski leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRutkowski85.7%6 of 7
AwayMitas100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski7Mitas3n = 10Rutkowski took 7 of 10
S2Rutkowski7Mitas3n = 10Rutkowski took 7 of 10
S3Rutkowski6Mitas4n = 10Rutkowski took 6 of 10
S4Rutkowski2Mitas3n = 5Mitas took 3 of 5
S5Rutkowski1Mitas2n = 3Mitas took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRutkowskiMitasR − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.834.8+5.0per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiMitasBasisWin rate · lifetime751 / 1331 vs 99 / 21556.4%46.1%751 / 1331 vs 99 / 215Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiRutkowski 1.80/Mitas 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mitas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 7 · 23:35M. Rutkowski—1111113J. Mitas—6940
WAug 6 · 21:00M. Rutkowski—1111143J. Mitas—73120
LAug 2 · 21:00M. Rutkowski—1513115102J. Mitas—1315611123
WAug 2 · 15:00M. Rutkowski—11117113J. Mitas—321161
WJun 22 · 15:00M. Rutkowski—1111113J. Mitas—9770
LJun 15 · 24:45M. Rutkowski—101191742J. Mitas—1241115113
LJun 14 · 22:20M. Rutkowski—61090J. Mitas—1112113
WJun 14 · 20:15M. Rutkowski—1111123J. Mitas—98100
LJun 13 · 18:20M. Rutkowski—11118111J. Mitas—13711133
WJun 7 · 19:30M. Rutkowski—1113115113J. Mitas—71591152
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113WSep 5 · 24:20M. Rutkowski1.801413113P. Jendrzejewski1.91121150WSep 4 · 22:50M. Rutkowski1.731111113J. Kuzmicz2.009680WSep 4 · 22:30M. Rutkowski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.007380LSep 4 · 21:45P. Jendrzejewski1.801111113M. Rutkowski1.919550WSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961LSep 4 · 19:15K. Kolodziej1.361311113M. Rutkowski3.0011610WSep 4 · 18:05T. Filbrandt2.101191171M. Rutkowski1.6771113113LSep 4 · 16:30A. Daniel1.501271113113M. Rutkowski2.50141141192WSep 4 · 24:35M. Kolek2.63831191M. Rutkowski1.4411116113
J. Mitas10
LAug 29 · 01:10J. Mitas1.50813451D. Solilo2.50111111113LAug 29 · 24:20J. Mitas1.5081461152K. Rudomina2.501112115113WAug 28 · 22:50J. Mitas2.501111113M. Rutkowski1.508980LAug 28 · 22:30J. Mitas2.10951171S. Sporek1.6711119113WAug 28 · 21:45T. Filbrandt1.91691151J. Mitas1.8011118113LAug 28 · 20:30J. Mitas3.406560K. Kolodziej1.301111113WAug 28 · 19:15S. Sporek1.6711111091J. Mitas2.1051312113LAug 28 · 16:30K. Kapik1.919111111113J. Mitas1.8011413662WAug 27 · 23:20J. Kwapis1.801191310152J. Mitas1.918111112173LAug 27 · 22:35J. Kuzmicz1.40116711113J. Mitas2.7591111992
Upcoming Matches
M. Rutkowski
Sep 7 · 15:25M. Rutkowski2.20K. Strowski1.61—Sep 7 · 16:55M. Rutkowski1.80K. Kapik1.90—Sep 7 · 18:05M. Rutkowski1.83K. Glazowski1.83—Sep 7 · 19:15M. Rutkowski1.40K. Kostyk2.75—Sep 7 · 20:30M. Rutkowski2.00K. Staszczyk1.71—Sep 7 · 21:25M. Rutkowski1.80K. Kapik1.90—Sep 7 · 21:50M. Rutkowski1.22B. Sulkowski4.00—Sep 7 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.40K. Kostyk2.75—
J. Mitas
Nothing scheduled
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