TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13021409
Played Aug 27Finished
Jakub Kwapis
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118911131110121517
Jacek Mitas
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:09 and never touched — 71.4% is still 71.4%
Graded at full timeJacek Mitas to win
71.4%
71.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Kwapis above · Jacek Mitas below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 15-17
Point 117 set 5, 15-17 — our read held Jacek Mitas at 71.4%
117 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kwapis 0–2 Jacek Mitas Jakub Kwapis has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:09What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kwapis
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kwapis 1617 vs Mitas 1607
Kwapis
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwapis 40% vs Mitas 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwapis 60% vs Mitas 30%
Kwapis
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwapis +2 · Mitas -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kwapis) · live re-read · sealed at 29% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitas form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwapis 1.80 / Mitas 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kwapis)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13021409
Kwapis1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite52% won 57 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it76% 44 of 58
Mitas1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 39 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back19% 12 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKwapis0wins
AwayMitas2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderMitas leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKwapisMitasK − MBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match44.049.5−5.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwapisMitasBasisWin rate · lifetime257 / 553 vs 99 / 21446.5%46.3%257 / 553 vs 99 / 214Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwapisKwapis 1.80/Mitas 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kwapis · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mitas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 27 · 23:20J. Kwapis—1191310152J. Mitas—8111112173
LAug 27 · 20:30J. Kwapis—571171J. Mitas—11117113
J. Kwapis10
WAug 28 · 24:10J. Kwapis1.3611911113J. Glanowski3.00911571WAug 27 · 21:50J. Kwapis2.50711118113J. Kuzmicz1.5011591172WAug 27 · 21:25J. Kwapis1.8371111113M. Rutkowski1.83118961LAug 27 · 20:30J. Mitas1.9111117113J. Kwapis1.80571171LAug 27 · 19:15J. Kwapis1.83971171T. Filbrandt1.8311118113LAug 27 · 18:05M. Benes1.40116511113J. Kwapis2.7551111652WAug 27 · 16:55K. Kapik2.25113781J. Kwapis1.5771111113WAug 27 · 15:25J. Braun1.50121161292J. Kwapis2.501481110113WAug 27 · 24:10M. Rutkowski2.0081113582J. Kwapis1.731141111113WAug 26 · 23:45J. Kwapis1.611111113J. Glanowski2.203970
J. Mitas10
LAug 29 · 01:10J. Mitas1.50813451D. Solilo2.50111111113LAug 29 · 24:20J. Mitas1.5081461152K. Rudomina2.501112115113WAug 28 · 22:50J. Mitas2.501111113M. Rutkowski1.508980LAug 28 · 22:30J. Mitas2.10951171S. Sporek1.6711119113WAug 28 · 21:45T. Filbrandt1.91691151J. Mitas1.8011118113LAug 28 · 20:30J. Mitas3.406560K. Kolodziej1.301111113WAug 28 · 19:15S. Sporek1.6711111091J. Mitas2.1051312113WAug 28 · 18:05M. Rutkowski1.801271151J. Mitas1.9114117113LAug 28 · 16:30K. Kapik1.919111111113J. Mitas1.8011413662WAug 27 · 20:30J. Mitas1.9111117113J. Kwapis1.80571171
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