TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13021420
Played Aug 27Finished
Michal Benes
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115611511116115
Jakub Kwapis
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:12 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Benes to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Benes above · Jakub Kwapis below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 82 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Michal Benes at 70.7%
82 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:12What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Benes 1822 vs Kwapis 1642
Benes
Correct
both rated, 180 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 80% vs Kwapis 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 60% vs Kwapis 40%
Benes
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes +4 · Kwapis +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Benes) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwapis form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.40 / Kwapis 2.75
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Benes)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13021420
Benes1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 35 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it76% 32 of 42
Kwapis2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 37 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back11% 6 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesKwapisBasisWin rate · lifetime107 / 217 vs 255 / 54749.3%46.6%107 / 217 vs 255 / 547Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.336.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.40/Kwapis 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.3%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Benes won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Benes10
WSep 3 · 20:05J. Witkowski5.00411581M. Benes1.1411911113WSep 3 · 19:15J. Chmielowski4.007370M. Benes1.221111113WSep 3 · 17:20J. Braun2.10611471M. Benes1.6711511113LSep 3 · 16:30A. Daniel2.5081111113M. Benes1.50119931WSep 3 · 15:00P. Klos2.0091181152M. Benes1.73111118113LSep 3 · 14:15P. Klos1.7811116113M. Benes1.91451171WSep 3 · 13:25A. Daniel1.94610111172M. Benes1.74111278113WSep 3 · 11:20G. Poliniewicz2.151261161M. Benes1.60101113113WSep 3 · 10:30K. Wisniewski2.709111111102M. Benes1.40117613123LSep 3 · 09:00J. Braun1.8115115113M. Benes1.861361161
J. Kwapis10
WAug 28 · 24:10J. Kwapis1.3611911113J. Glanowski3.00911571LAug 27 · 23:20J. Kwapis1.801191310152J. Mitas1.918111112173WAug 27 · 21:50J. Kwapis2.50711118113J. Kuzmicz1.5011591172WAug 27 · 21:25J. Kwapis1.8371111113M. Rutkowski1.83118961LAug 27 · 20:30J. Mitas1.9111117113J. Kwapis1.80571171LAug 27 · 19:15J. Kwapis1.83971171T. Filbrandt1.8311118113WAug 27 · 16:55K. Kapik2.25113781J. Kwapis1.5771111113WAug 27 · 15:25J. Braun1.50121161292J. Kwapis2.501481110113WAug 27 · 24:10M. Rutkowski2.0081113582J. Kwapis1.731141111113WAug 26 · 23:45J. Kwapis1.611111113J. Glanowski2.203970
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