TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13021423
Played Aug 27Finished
Krzysztof Kapik
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117311711811––
Jakub Kwapis
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:12 and never touched — 62.6% is still 62.6%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
62.6%
62.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKrzysztof Kapik above · Jakub Kwapis below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 69 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Krzysztof Kapik at 62.6%
69 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Kapik 11–7 Jakub Kwapis Jakub Kwapis has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:12What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kwapis
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-7 in 18
Kapik
Wrong
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapik 1678 vs Kwapis 1616
Kapik
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapik 40% vs Kwapis 60%
Kwapis
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapik 40% vs Kwapis 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapik -2 · Kwapis +3
Kwapis
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kwapis) · live re-read · sealed at 37% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapik 2.25 / Kwapis 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kwapis)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13021423
Kapik2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 214 of 449
Down 0–1, comes back27% 64 of 234
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 95
Kwapis1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 57 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it76% 44 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKapik7wins
AwayKwapis3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKapik leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapik66.7%4 of 6
AwayKwapis25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapik6Kwapis4n = 10Kapik took 6 of 10
S2Kapik8Kwapis2n = 10Kapik took 8 of 10
S3Kapik3Kwapis7n = 10Kwapis took 7 of 10
S4Kapik5Kwapis2n = 7Kapik took 5 of 7
S5Kapik2Kwapis1n = 3Kapik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKapikKwapisKapik − KwapisBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.536.6+3.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKapikKwapisBasisWin rate · lifetime1131 / 2129 vs 254 / 54653.1%46.5%1131 / 2129 vs 254 / 546Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.136.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwapisKapik 2.25/Kwapis 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Kwapis · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kwapis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 15:00K. Kapik—1211113J. Kwapis—10870
WJul 15 · 24:45K. Kapik—1111113J. Kwapis—6760
WJul 14 · 22:30K. Kapik—1311511123J. Kwapis—157117102
WJul 14 · 20:30K. Kapik—91111113J. Kwapis—117241
WJul 14 · 24:45K. Kapik—913211113J. Kwapis—111111472
LJul 13 · 22:30K. Kapik—13109111J. Kwapis—111211133
LJul 13 · 19:15K. Kapik—88140J. Kwapis—1111163
WJul 8 · 19:15K. Kapik—11118113J. Kwapis—631191
WJul 7 · 16:30K. Kapik—11129143J. Kwapis—81011121
LJun 26 · 24:45K. Kapik—12113482J. Kwapis—1061111113
K. Kapik10
LSep 7 · 24:10K. Kapik2.251261081D. Jadam1.57101112113LSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113WSep 6 · 21:50K. Kapik1.441111113A. Wos2.638640LSep 6 · 21:25K. Kapik1.671091181L. Pietraszko2.1012119113WSep 6 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.8311811382K. Kapik1.83811811113LSep 6 · 19:15K. Kapik2.258911101J. Kuzmicz1.5711115123LSep 6 · 18:05J. Zochniak2.6371111123K. Kapik1.441159101LSep 6 · 16:55L. Pietraszko1.831111123K. Kapik1.8362100WSep 6 · 15:25D. Jadam1.6766100K. Kapik2.101111113LSep 2 · 20:05M. Olbrycht1.83611116113K. Kapik1.8311981182
J. Kwapis10
WAug 28 · 24:10J. Kwapis1.3611911113J. Glanowski3.00911571LAug 27 · 23:20J. Kwapis1.801191310152J. Mitas1.918111112173WAug 27 · 21:50J. Kwapis2.50711118113J. Kuzmicz1.5011591172WAug 27 · 21:25J. Kwapis1.8371111113M. Rutkowski1.83118961LAug 27 · 20:30J. Mitas1.9111117113J. Kwapis1.80571171LAug 27 · 19:15J. Kwapis1.83971171T. Filbrandt1.8311118113LAug 27 · 18:05M. Benes1.40116511113J. Kwapis2.7551111652WAug 27 · 15:25J. Braun1.50121161292J. Kwapis2.501481110113WAug 27 · 24:10M. Rutkowski2.0081113582J. Kwapis1.731141111113WAug 26 · 23:45J. Kwapis1.611111113J. Glanowski2.203970
Upcoming Matches
K. Kapik
Sep 7 · 15:45K. Kapik2.25K. Glazowski1.57—Sep 7 · 16:55K. Kapik1.90M. Rutkowski1.80—Sep 7 · 17:40K. Kapik1.90K. Staszczyk1.80—Sep 7 · 18:30K. Kapik2.25K. Strowski1.57—Sep 7 · 20:05K. Kapik1.66K. Kostyk2.10—Sep 7 · 21:25K. Kapik1.90M. Rutkowski1.80—Sep 7 · 22:10K. Kapik1.90K. Staszczyk1.80—Sep 7 · 22:55K. Kapik1.66K. Kostyk2.10—Sep 8 · 24:35K. Kapik1.33B. Sulkowski2.95—
J. Kwapis
Nothing scheduled
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