TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13021411
Played Aug 27Finished
Jakub Kwapis
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711115119811117
Jakub Kuzmicz
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:09 and never touched — 66.8% is still 66.8%
Graded at full timeJakub Kuzmicz to win
66.8%
66.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Kwapis above · Jakub Kuzmicz below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 91 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Jakub Kuzmicz at 66.8%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kwapis 3–7 Jakub Kuzmicz Jakub Kwapis has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:09What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kuzmicz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Kuzmicz
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwapis 1608 vs Kuzmicz 1783
Kuzmicz
Wrong
both rated, 175 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwapis 40% vs Kuzmicz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwapis 50% vs Kuzmicz 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwapis +1 · Kuzmicz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Kuzmicz) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmicz form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwapis 2.50 / Kuzmicz 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Kuzmicz)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13021411
Kwapis2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 37 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back11% 6 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 28
Kuzmicz1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 416 of 685
Up 2–0, closes it98% 169 of 172
Up 1–0, closes it81% 286 of 355
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKwapis3wins
AwayKuzmicz7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKuzmicz leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwapis42.9%3 of 7
AwayKuzmicz100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwapis7Kuzmicz3n = 10Kwapis took 7 of 10
S2Kwapis3Kuzmicz7n = 10Kuzmicz took 7 of 10
S3Kwapis5Kuzmicz5n = 10split evenly
S4Kwapis2Kuzmicz6n = 8Kuzmicz took 6 of 8
S5Kwapis1Kuzmicz3n = 4Kuzmicz took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKwapisKuzmiczKwapis − KuzmiczBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.142.7−2.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwapisKuzmiczBasisWin rate · lifetime256 / 551 vs 634 / 110646.5%57.3%256 / 551 vs 634 / 1106Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.139.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzmiczKwapis 2.50/Kuzmicz 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Kuzmicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kwapis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 14 · 23:55J. Kwapis—147981J. Kuzmicz—121111113
LJul 14 · 21:45J. Kwapis—117971J. Kuzmicz—51111113
WJul 13 · 23:15J. Kwapis—116125113J. Kuzmicz—811101192
LJul 13 · 21:00J. Kwapis—11711692J. Kuzmicz—411711113
LApr 20 · 05:05J. Kwapis—912811122J. Kuzmicz—1110117143
LMar 19 · 14:35J. Kwapis—9970J. Kuzmicz—1111113
LMar 18 · 12:30J. Kwapis—7911101J. Kuzmicz—11118123
WMar 18 · 05:15J. Kwapis—1111143J. Kuzmicz—96120
WFeb 25 · 09:20J. Kwapis—111411113J. Kuzmicz—8121371
LFeb 23 · 05:15J. Kwapis—11216772J. Kuzmicz—9111411113
J. Kwapis10
WAug 28 · 24:10J. Kwapis1.3611911113J. Glanowski3.00911571LAug 27 · 23:20J. Kwapis1.801191310152J. Mitas1.918111112173WAug 27 · 21:25J. Kwapis1.8371111113M. Rutkowski1.83118961LAug 27 · 20:30J. Mitas1.9111117113J. Kwapis1.80571171LAug 27 · 19:15J. Kwapis1.83971171T. Filbrandt1.8311118113LAug 27 · 18:05M. Benes1.40116511113J. Kwapis2.7551111652WAug 27 · 16:55K. Kapik2.25113781J. Kwapis1.5771111113WAug 27 · 15:25J. Braun1.50121161292J. Kwapis2.501481110113WAug 27 · 24:10M. Rutkowski2.0081113582J. Kwapis1.731141111113WAug 26 · 23:45J. Kwapis1.611111113J. Glanowski2.203970
J. Kuzmicz10
WSep 6 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.401110961J. Kuzmicz1.3091211113WSep 6 · 19:15K. Kapik2.258911101J. Kuzmicz1.5711115123WSep 6 · 17:20D. Jadam2.3881141172J. Kuzmicz1.53117118113LSep 6 · 16:30J. Zochniak2.75139144113J. Kuzmicz1.401111121162WSep 6 · 15:00F. Mlynarski2.38131171172J. Kuzmicz1.53158114113LSep 5 · 19:40J. Kuzmicz1.731013691P. Jendrzejewski2.00121111113LSep 5 · 18:30J. Kuzmicz1.5091171172F. Mlynarski2.50118119113WSep 5 · 17:20J. Kuzmicz1.5711118113D. Jadam2.25661171WSep 5 · 16:05T. Filbrandt2.251111781J. Kuzmicz1.5791311103WSep 5 · 15:25J. Kuzmicz1.22911116113A. Wos4.0011991192
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