TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13021412
Played Aug 27Finished
Jakub Kwapis
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711118119116––
Mateusz Rutkowski
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:09 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Kwapis above · Mateusz Rutkowski below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 74 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Mateusz Rutkowski at 59.7%
74 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kwapis 3–3 Mateusz Rutkowski Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:09What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Rutkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwapis 1608 vs Rutkowski 1816
Rutkowski
Wrong
both rated, 208 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwapis 40% vs Rutkowski 80%
Rutkowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwapis 40% vs Rutkowski 70%
Rutkowski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwapis -3 · Rutkowski -1
Kwapis
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rutkowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwapis 1.83 / Rutkowski 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rutkowski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13021412
Kwapis1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Rutkowski1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKwapis3wins
AwayRutkowski3wins
Level at 3–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwapis100%3 of 3
AwayRutkowski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwapis3Rutkowski3n = 6split evenly
S2Kwapis3Rutkowski3n = 6split evenly
S3Kwapis2Rutkowski4n = 6Rutkowski took 4 of 6
S4Kwapis3Rutkowski2n = 5Kwapis took 3 of 5
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricKwapisRutkowskiK − RBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match36.035.7+0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwapisRutkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime255 / 550 vs 747 / 132646.4%56.3%255 / 550 vs 747 / 1326Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiKwapis 1.83/Rutkowski 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kwapis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WJul 14 · 21:00J. Kwapis—11119113M. Rutkowski—791191
LJul 13 · 23:55J. Kwapis—7118101M. Rutkowski—11911123
WJul 13 · 21:45J. Kwapis—11811113M. Rutkowski—811631
WJun 26 · 24:20J. Kwapis—11911113M. Rutkowski—711851
LJun 25 · 22:05J. Kwapis—6880M. Rutkowski—1111113
LJun 25 · 18:50J. Kwapis—412891M. Rutkowski—111011113
J. Kwapis10
WAug 28 · 24:10J. Kwapis1.3611911113J. Glanowski3.00911571LAug 27 · 23:20J. Kwapis1.801191310152J. Mitas1.918111112173WAug 27 · 21:50J. Kwapis2.50711118113J. Kuzmicz1.5011591172LAug 27 · 20:30J. Mitas1.9111117113J. Kwapis1.80571171LAug 27 · 19:15J. Kwapis1.83971171T. Filbrandt1.8311118113LAug 27 · 18:05M. Benes1.40116511113J. Kwapis2.7551111652WAug 27 · 16:55K. Kapik2.25113781J. Kwapis1.5771111113WAug 27 · 15:25J. Braun1.50121161292J. Kwapis2.501481110113WAug 27 · 24:10M. Rutkowski2.0081113582J. Kwapis1.731141111113WAug 26 · 23:45J. Kwapis1.611111113J. Glanowski2.203970
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113WSep 5 · 24:20M. Rutkowski1.801413113P. Jendrzejewski1.91121150WSep 4 · 22:50M. Rutkowski1.731111113J. Kuzmicz2.009680WSep 4 · 22:30M. Rutkowski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.007380LSep 4 · 21:45P. Jendrzejewski1.801111113M. Rutkowski1.919550WSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961LSep 4 · 19:15K. Kolodziej1.361311113M. Rutkowski3.0011610WSep 4 · 18:05T. Filbrandt2.101191171M. Rutkowski1.6771113113LSep 4 · 16:30A. Daniel1.501271113113M. Rutkowski2.50141141192LAug 27 · 24:10M. Rutkowski2.0081113582J. Kwapis1.731141111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Kwapis
Nothing scheduled
M. Rutkowski
Sep 7 · 15:25M. Rutkowski2.20K. Strowski1.61—Sep 7 · 16:55M. Rutkowski1.80K. Kapik1.90—Sep 7 · 18:05M. Rutkowski1.83K. Glazowski1.83—Sep 7 · 19:15M. Rutkowski1.40K. Kostyk2.75—Sep 7 · 20:30M. Rutkowski2.00K. Staszczyk1.71—Sep 7 · 21:25M. Rutkowski1.80K. Kapik1.90—Sep 7 · 21:50M. Rutkowski1.22B. Sulkowski4.00—Sep 7 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.40K. Kostyk2.75—
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