TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13030543
Played Aug 28Finished
Jacek Mitas
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119118––––
Mateusz Rutkowski
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:01 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJacek Mitas above · Mateusz Rutkowski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 58 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Mateusz Rutkowski at 57.9%
58 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Mitas 6–10 Mateusz Rutkowski Jacek Mitas has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:01What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Rutkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Rutkowski
Wrong
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mitas 1637 vs Rutkowski 1730
Rutkowski
Wrong
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitas 60% vs Rutkowski 40%
Mitas
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitas 50% vs Rutkowski 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitas -1 · Rutkowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rutkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitas 2.50 / Rutkowski 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Rutkowski)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13030543
Mitas2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 41 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back19% 13 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Rutkowski1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 386 of 557
Up 2–0, closes it96% 187 of 194
Up 1–0, closes it88% 311 of 353
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMitas4wins
AwayRutkowski6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRutkowski leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMitas100%3 of 3
AwayRutkowski85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mitas3Rutkowski7n = 10Rutkowski took 7 of 10
S2Mitas3Rutkowski7n = 10Rutkowski took 7 of 10
S3Mitas4Rutkowski6n = 10Rutkowski took 6 of 10
S4Mitas3Rutkowski2n = 5Mitas took 3 of 5
S5Mitas2Rutkowski1n = 3Mitas took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMitasRutkowskiM − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.839.8−5.0per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitasRutkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime103 / 221 vs 752 / 133646.6%56.3%103 / 221 vs 752 / 1336Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiMitas 2.50/Rutkowski 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mitas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 7 · 23:35J. Mitas—6940M. Rutkowski—1111113
LAug 6 · 21:00J. Mitas—73120M. Rutkowski—1111143
WAug 2 · 21:00J. Mitas—1315611123M. Rutkowski—1513115102
LAug 2 · 15:00J. Mitas—321161M. Rutkowski—11117113
LJun 22 · 15:00J. Mitas—9770M. Rutkowski—1111113
WJun 15 · 24:45J. Mitas—1241115113M. Rutkowski—101191742
WJun 14 · 22:20J. Mitas—1112113M. Rutkowski—61090
LJun 14 · 20:15J. Mitas—98100M. Rutkowski—1111123
WJun 13 · 18:20J. Mitas—13711133M. Rutkowski—11118111
LJun 7 · 19:30J. Mitas—71591152M. Rutkowski—1113115113
J. Mitas10
LAug 29 · 01:10J. Mitas1.50813451D. Solilo2.50111111113LAug 29 · 24:20J. Mitas1.5081461152K. Rudomina2.501112115113LAug 28 · 22:30J. Mitas2.10951171S. Sporek1.6711119113WAug 28 · 21:45T. Filbrandt1.91691151J. Mitas1.8011118113LAug 28 · 20:30J. Mitas3.406560K. Kolodziej1.301111113WAug 28 · 19:15S. Sporek1.6711111091J. Mitas2.1051312113WAug 28 · 18:05M. Rutkowski1.801271151J. Mitas1.9114117113LAug 28 · 16:30K. Kapik1.919111111113J. Mitas1.8011413662WAug 27 · 23:20J. Kwapis1.801191310152J. Mitas1.918111112173LAug 27 · 22:35J. Kuzmicz1.40116711113J. Mitas2.7591111992
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113WSep 5 · 24:20M. Rutkowski1.801413113P. Jendrzejewski1.91121150WSep 4 · 22:50M. Rutkowski1.731111113J. Kuzmicz2.009680WSep 4 · 22:30M. Rutkowski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.007380LSep 4 · 21:45P. Jendrzejewski1.801111113M. Rutkowski1.919550WSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961LSep 4 · 19:15K. Kolodziej1.361311113M. Rutkowski3.0011610WSep 4 · 18:05T. Filbrandt2.101191171M. Rutkowski1.6771113113LSep 4 · 16:30A. Daniel1.501271113113M. Rutkowski2.50141141192LAug 28 · 18:05M. Rutkowski1.801271151J. Mitas1.9114117113
Upcoming Matches
J. Mitas
Nothing scheduled
M. Rutkowski
Sep 7 · 15:25M. Rutkowski2.20K. Strowski1.61—Sep 7 · 16:55M. Rutkowski1.80K. Kapik1.90—Sep 7 · 18:05M. Rutkowski1.83K. Glazowski1.83—Sep 7 · 19:15M. Rutkowski1.40K. Kostyk2.75—Sep 7 · 20:30M. Rutkowski2.00K. Staszczyk1.71—Sep 7 · 21:25M. Rutkowski1.80K. Kapik1.90—Sep 7 · 21:50M. Rutkowski1.22B. Sulkowski4.00—Sep 7 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.40K. Kostyk2.75—
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