TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13030551
Played Aug 28Finished
Krzysztof Kapik
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111141113116116
Jacek Mitas
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJacek Mitas to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKrzysztof Kapik above · Jacek Mitas below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 93 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Jacek Mitas at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Kapik 5–5 Jacek Mitas Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:04What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mitas
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapik 1626 vs Mitas 1607
Kapik
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapik 20% vs Mitas 60%
Mitas
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapik 30% vs Mitas 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapik -2 · Mitas +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mitas)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapik 1.91 / Mitas 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mitas)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13030551
Kapik1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 215 of 453
Down 0–1, comes back27% 64 of 236
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 96
Mitas1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 55 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it85% 39 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKapik5wins
AwayMitas5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapik100%4 of 4
AwayMitas83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapik4Mitas6n = 10Mitas took 6 of 10
S2Kapik7Mitas3n = 10Kapik took 7 of 10
S3Kapik2Mitas8n = 10Mitas took 8 of 10
S4Kapik4Mitas1n = 5Kapik took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKapikMitasK − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.435.40.0per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKapikMitasBasisWin rate · lifetime1128 / 2128 vs 99 / 21453%46.3%1128 / 2128 vs 99 / 214Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.136.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MitasKapik 1.91/Mitas 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mitas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kapik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 22 · 16:30K. Kapik—1411113J. Mitas—12540
LJun 14 · 21:10K. Kapik—5910J. Mitas—1111113
LJun 7 · 16:25K. Kapik—7870J. Mitas—1111113
LMay 27 · 24:15K. Kapik—711741J. Mitas—11811113
WMay 26 · 21:50K. Kapik—411912113J. Mitas—119111072
WMay 26 · 18:15K. Kapik—111511113J. Mitas—6131341
WMay 13 · 24:40K. Kapik—111111113J. Mitas—561351
WMay 12 · 22:15K. Kapik—1411143J. Mitas—122120
LMay 12 · 24:40K. Kapik—7370J. Mitas—1111113
LMay 11 · 22:15K. Kapik—1012151192J. Mitas—1210174113
K. Kapik10
LSep 7 · 24:10K. Kapik2.251261081D. Jadam1.57101112113LSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113WSep 6 · 21:50K. Kapik1.441111113A. Wos2.638640LSep 6 · 21:25K. Kapik1.671091181L. Pietraszko2.1012119113WSep 6 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.8311811382K. Kapik1.83811811113LSep 6 · 19:15K. Kapik2.258911101J. Kuzmicz1.5711115123LSep 6 · 18:05J. Zochniak2.6371111123K. Kapik1.441159101LSep 6 · 16:55L. Pietraszko1.831111123K. Kapik1.8362100WSep 6 · 15:25D. Jadam1.6766100K. Kapik2.101111113LSep 2 · 20:05M. Olbrycht1.83611116113K. Kapik1.8311981182
J. Mitas10
LAug 29 · 01:10J. Mitas1.50813451D. Solilo2.50111111113LAug 29 · 24:20J. Mitas1.5081461152K. Rudomina2.501112115113WAug 28 · 22:50J. Mitas2.501111113M. Rutkowski1.508980LAug 28 · 22:30J. Mitas2.10951171S. Sporek1.6711119113WAug 28 · 21:45T. Filbrandt1.91691151J. Mitas1.8011118113LAug 28 · 20:30J. Mitas3.406560K. Kolodziej1.301111113WAug 28 · 19:15S. Sporek1.6711111091J. Mitas2.1051312113WAug 28 · 18:05M. Rutkowski1.801271151J. Mitas1.9114117113WAug 27 · 23:20J. Kwapis1.801191310152J. Mitas1.918111112173LAug 27 · 22:35J. Kuzmicz1.40116711113J. Mitas2.7591111992
Upcoming Matches
K. Kapik
Sep 7 · 15:45K. Kapik2.25K. Glazowski1.57—Sep 7 · 16:55K. Kapik1.90M. Rutkowski1.80—Sep 7 · 17:40K. Kapik1.90K. Staszczyk1.80—Sep 7 · 18:30K. Kapik2.25K. Strowski1.57—Sep 7 · 20:05K. Kapik1.66K. Kostyk2.10—Sep 7 · 21:25K. Kapik1.90M. Rutkowski1.80—Sep 7 · 22:10K. Kapik1.90K. Staszczyk1.80—Sep 7 · 22:55K. Kapik1.66K. Kostyk2.10—Sep 8 · 24:35K. Kapik1.33B. Sulkowski2.95—
J. Mitas
Nothing scheduled
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