TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13030547
Played Aug 28Finished
Szymon Sporek
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11511131012911––
Jacek Mitas
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:02 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeJacek Mitas to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSzymon Sporek above · Jacek Mitas below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 82 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jacek Mitas at 62.5%
82 points played in total.
H2H Szymon Sporek 0–1 Jacek Mitas Szymon Sporek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:02What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sporek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sporek 1736 vs Mitas 1614
Sporek
Wrong
both rated, 121 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sporek 20% vs Mitas 40%
Mitas
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sporek 50% vs Mitas 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sporek +1 · Mitas +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Sporek) · live re-read · sealed at 38% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sporek form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSporek 1.67 / Mitas 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Sporek)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13030547
Sporek1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 116 of 198
Up 2–0, closes it97% 62 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it79% 95 of 120
Mitas2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 41 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back19% 13 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSporek0wins
AwayMitas1wins
Mitas leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSporekMitasS − MBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match41.041.00.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSporekMitasBasisWin rate · lifetime420 / 834 vs 101 / 21850.4%46.3%420 / 834 vs 101 / 218Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.436.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SporekSporek 1.67/Mitas 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Sporek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mitas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 28 · 19:15S. Sporek—11111091J. Mitas—51312113
S. Sporek10
LSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203LSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752WSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562WSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282LSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek2.7591190S. Kolasa1.401113113WSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192LSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123WSep 6 · 03:00S. Sporek1.5711116133G. Poliniewicz2.259611111
J. Mitas10
LAug 29 · 01:10J. Mitas1.50813451D. Solilo2.50111111113LAug 29 · 24:20J. Mitas1.5081461152K. Rudomina2.501112115113WAug 28 · 22:50J. Mitas2.501111113M. Rutkowski1.508980LAug 28 · 22:30J. Mitas2.10951171S. Sporek1.6711119113WAug 28 · 21:45T. Filbrandt1.91691151J. Mitas1.8011118113LAug 28 · 20:30J. Mitas3.406560K. Kolodziej1.301111113WAug 28 · 18:05M. Rutkowski1.801271151J. Mitas1.9114117113LAug 28 · 16:30K. Kapik1.919111111113J. Mitas1.8011413662WAug 27 · 23:20J. Kwapis1.801191310152J. Mitas1.918111112173LAug 27 · 22:35J. Kuzmicz1.40116711113J. Mitas2.7591111992
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