TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13030544
Played Aug 28Finished
Jacek Mitas
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911511119711––
Szymon Sporek
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:01 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeJacek Mitas to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJacek Mitas above · Szymon Sporek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 74 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Jacek Mitas at 62.5%
74 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Mitas 1–0 Szymon Sporek Szymon Sporek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:01What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sporek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Mitas 1626 vs Sporek 1736
Sporek
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitas 60% vs Sporek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitas 60% vs Sporek 40%
Mitas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitas +1 · Sporek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Sporek) · live re-read · sealed at 38% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitas form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitas 2.10 / Sporek 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Sporek)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13030544
Mitas2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 41 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back19% 13 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Sporek1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 116 of 198
Up 2–0, closes it97% 62 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it79% 95 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMitas1wins
AwaySporek0wins
Mitas leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMitasSporekM − SBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match41.041.00.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitasSporekBasisWin rate · lifetime102 / 219 vs 420 / 83446.6%50.4%102 / 219 vs 420 / 834Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.839.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SporekMitas 2.10/Sporek 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Sporek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sporek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 28 · 19:15J. Mitas—51312113S. Sporek—11111091
J. Mitas10
LAug 29 · 01:10J. Mitas1.50813451D. Solilo2.50111111113LAug 29 · 24:20J. Mitas1.5081461152K. Rudomina2.501112115113WAug 28 · 22:50J. Mitas2.501111113M. Rutkowski1.508980WAug 28 · 21:45T. Filbrandt1.91691151J. Mitas1.8011118113LAug 28 · 20:30J. Mitas3.406560K. Kolodziej1.301111113WAug 28 · 19:15S. Sporek1.6711111091J. Mitas2.1051312113WAug 28 · 18:05M. Rutkowski1.801271151J. Mitas1.9114117113LAug 28 · 16:30K. Kapik1.919111111113J. Mitas1.8011413662WAug 27 · 23:20J. Kwapis1.801191310152J. Mitas1.918111112173LAug 27 · 22:35J. Kuzmicz1.40116711113J. Mitas2.7591111992
S. Sporek10
LSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203LSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752WSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562WSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282LSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek2.7591190S. Kolasa1.401113113WSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192LSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123LAug 28 · 19:15S. Sporek1.6711111091J. Mitas2.1051312113
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