Jakub Chmielowski vs Krzysztof Kapik 3-0

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesMatch #13099480

Played Sep 9Finished

Jakub Chmielowski

Home

1.57

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 2

Final

3 – 0

Set by set

1311116118––––

Krzysztof Kapik

Away

2.25

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Krzysztof Kapik to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingJakub Chmielowski above · Krzysztof Kapik below

Set 1 · 13-11

Set 2 · 11-6

Set 3 · 11-8

Point 60 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Krzysztof Kapik at 54.0%

60 points played in total.

H2H Jakub Chmielowski 14–19 Krzysztof Kapik Jakub Chmielowski has won 14 of their 33 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 15:28

What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Chmielowski

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

14-19 in 33

Kapik

Wrong

gap of 5 in 33, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Chmielowski 1621 vs Kapik 1717

Kapik

Wrong

both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Chmielowski 60% vs Kapik 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Chmielowski 70% vs Kapik 60%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Chmielowski +2 · Kapik -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Chmielowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kapik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsChmielowski 1.57 / Kapik 2.25

Signal prob.56% / 44%

Edge (Chmielowski)-2.8pp (anti-value)

TT Elite Series · #13099480

Chmielowski1.57

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Won last 2

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite56% won 118 of 210

Up 2–0, closes it90% 52 of 58

Up 1–0, closes it72% 94 of 131

Kapik2.25

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog47% won 209 of 443

Down 0–1, comes back27% 63 of 230

Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 97

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeChmielowski5wins

AwayKapik5wins

4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeChmielowski60%3 of 5

AwayKapik60%3 of 5

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Chmielowski5Kapik5n = 10split evenly

S2Chmielowski6Kapik4n = 10Chmielowski took 6 of 10

S3Chmielowski5Kapik5n = 10split evenly

S4Chmielowski6Kapik4n = 10Chmielowski took 6 of 10

S5Chmielowski1Kapik3n = 4Kapik took 3 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home440%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away330%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricChmielowskiKapikC − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.140.8+0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricChmielowskiKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime355 / 726 vs 1122 / 210948.9%53.2%355 / 726 vs 1122 / 2109Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.1per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Chmielowski

Chmielowski 1.57/Kapik 2.25

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

56.1%

Chmielowski · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–0

Chmielowski won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

LSep 2 · 19:15J. Chmielowski—11411882K. Kapik—911811113

LAug 23 · 18:50J. Chmielowski—7101181K. Kapik—11129113

WAug 11 · 23:20J. Chmielowski—13119113K. Kapik—1171171

LAug 11 · 20:30J. Chmielowski—911101182K. Kapik—118128113

WAug 10 · 21:50J. Chmielowski—11115113K. Kapik—451151

LJul 30 · 22:55J. Chmielowski—6711101K. Kapik—11118123

WJul 30 · 20:05J. Chmielowski—811811123K. Kapik—118117102

WJul 21 · 12:10J. Chmielowski—11119113K. Kapik—771191

LJun 11 · 10:40J. Chmielowski—11513412K. Kapik—6111111113

WJun 11 · 07:35J. Chmielowski—91111113K. Kapik—118841

J. Chmielowski10

LSep 9 · 20:30J. Chmielowski1.331310111172J. Krawczyk3.25151289113 WSep 9 · 18:50J. Chmielowski4.33761211113M. Benes1.20111110792 WSep 9 · 17:40J. Chmielowski2.00611116113M. Olbrycht1.7311581162 LSep 9 · 16:05J. Chmielowski2.5051390A. Daniel1.501115113 LSep 9 · 15:00J. Chmielowski4.337620J. Braun1.201111113 WSep 3 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.6161161182J. Chmielowski2.20118117113 WSep 3 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311814992J. Chmielowski1.836111211113 WSep 3 · 22:10J. Chmielowski2.50115911153M. Rutkowski1.50911115132 WSep 3 · 21:00J. Glanowski2.7511631152J. Chmielowski1.40811118113 WSep 3 · 20:30P. Klos1.1788111192J. Chmielowski4.50111147113

K. Kapik10

LSep 9 · 24:10K. Kapik2.0091170M. Rutkowski1.731113113 WSep 8 · 23:20K. Kapik1.441111113K. Kostyk2.636370 WSep 8 · 21:50K. Kapik2.00111011113K. Staszczyk1.73912871 WSep 8 · 21:25K. Kapik1.73111311113L. Pietraszko2.00815571 LSep 8 · 20:30K. Kostyk2.631111113K. Kapik1.448870 WSep 8 · 19:15K. Kapik2.001111113M. Rutkowski1.736980 WSep 8 · 18:05K. Glazowski1.5311414582K. Kapik2.388111211113 LSep 8 · 16:55L. Pietraszko2.10631111113K. Kapik1.6711116982 LSep 8 · 15:25A. Daniel1.611181111113K. Kapik2.2013119452 WSep 8 · 24:35B. Sulkowski3.75811781K. Kapik1.2511211113

Upcoming Matches

J. Chmielowski3 of 10 neutral

Sep 9 · 22:55J. Chmielowski2.00M. Olbrycht1.73—Sep 9 · 23:45J. Chmielowski2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 10 · 24:10J. Chmielowski2.38M. Rutkowski1.53—Sep 10 · 15:25J. Chmielowski—K. Kolodziej——Sep 10 · 16:55J. Chmielowski—J. Mitas——Sep 10 · 18:05J. Chmielowski—K. Kapik——Sep 10 · 19:15J. Chmielowski—K. Staszczyk——Sep 10 · 20:30J. Chmielowski—M. Olbrycht——Sep 10 · 21:25J. Chmielowski—J. Mitas——Sep 10 · 21:50J. Chmielowski—K. Kapik——

K. Kapik4 of 10 neutral

Sep 9 · 22:35K. Kapik2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 9 · 23:20K. Kapik1.73M. Rutkowski2.00—Sep 10 · 15:45K. Kapik—J. Mitas——Sep 10 · 16:30K. Kapik—K. Staszczyk——Sep 10 · 18:05K. Kapik—J. Chmielowski——Sep 10 · 18:50K. Kapik2.20M. Olbrycht1.60—Sep 10 · 19:40K. Kapik—K. Kolodziej——Sep 10 · 21:50K. Kapik—J. Chmielowski——Sep 10 · 22:35K. Kapik—M. Olbrycht——Sep 10 · 23:45K. Kapik—M. Kolek——

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