TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13104870
Played Sep 10Finished
Krzysztof Kapik
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118411117311111
Jakub Chmielowski
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Chmielowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrzysztof Kapik above · Jakub Chmielowski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 1-11
Point 78 set 5, 1-11 — our read held Jakub Chmielowski at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Kapik 19–14 Jakub Chmielowski Jakub Chmielowski has won 14 of their 33 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:10What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Chmielowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-14 in 33
Kapik
Wrong
gap of 5 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapik 1688 vs Chmielowski 1612
Kapik
Wrong
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapik 60% vs Chmielowski 20%
Kapik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapik 60% vs Chmielowski 40%
Kapik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapik +1 · Chmielowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kapik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmielowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapik 1.83 / Chmielowski 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kapik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13104870
Kapik1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Chmielowski1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKapik5wins
AwayChmielowski5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapik60%3 of 5
AwayChmielowski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapik5Chmielowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Kapik4Chmielowski6n = 10Chmielowski took 6 of 10
S3Kapik5Chmielowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Kapik4Chmielowski6n = 10Chmielowski took 6 of 10
S5Kapik3Chmielowski1n = 4Kapik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKapikChmielowskiK − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.841.1−0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKapikChmielowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1119 / 2101 vs 357 / 73353.3%48.7%1119 / 2101 vs 357 / 733Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KapikKapik 1.83/Chmielowski 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chmielowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 19:15K. Kapik—911811113J. Chmielowski—11411882
WAug 23 · 18:50K. Kapik—11129113J. Chmielowski—7101181
LAug 11 · 23:20K. Kapik—1171171J. Chmielowski—13119113
WAug 11 · 20:30K. Kapik—118128113J. Chmielowski—911101182
LAug 10 · 21:50K. Kapik—451151J. Chmielowski—11115113
WJul 30 · 22:55K. Kapik—11118123J. Chmielowski—6711101
LJul 30 · 20:05K. Kapik—118117102J. Chmielowski—811811123
LJul 21 · 12:10K. Kapik—771191J. Chmielowski—11119113
WJun 11 · 10:40K. Kapik—6111111113J. Chmielowski—11513412
LJun 11 · 07:35K. Kapik—118841J. Chmielowski—91111113
K. Kapik10
WSep 10 · 16:30K. Kapik1.671111113K. Staszczyk2.107820LSep 10 · 15:45J. Mitas1.8311711113K. Kapik1.83911451LSep 9 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.001113118113K. Kapik1.7391571142WSep 9 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.735790K. Kapik2.001111113WSep 9 · 22:10K. Kapik1.831111119113M. Olbrycht1.8361391162LSep 9 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.571311113K. Kapik2.2511680LSep 9 · 24:10K. Kapik2.0091170M. Rutkowski1.731113113WSep 8 · 23:20K. Kapik1.441111113K. Kostyk2.636370WSep 8 · 21:50K. Kapik2.00111011113K. Staszczyk1.73912871WSep 8 · 21:25K. Kapik1.73111311113L. Pietraszko2.00815571
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 10 · 16:55J. Mitas2.1081090J. Chmielowski1.671112113LSep 10 · 15:25K. Kolodziej1.331111113J. Chmielowski3.256690LSep 10 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.5031112113J. Chmielowski2.501191071LSep 9 · 23:45J. Chmielowski2.00117612102K. Staszczyk1.739111110123LSep 9 · 22:55J. Chmielowski2.0099120M. Olbrycht1.731111143WSep 9 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.571311113K. Kapik2.2511680LSep 9 · 20:30J. Chmielowski1.331310111172J. Krawczyk3.25151289113WSep 9 · 18:50J. Chmielowski4.33761211113M. Benes1.20111110792WSep 9 · 17:40J. Chmielowski2.00611116113M. Olbrycht1.7311581162LSep 9 · 16:05J. Chmielowski2.5051390A. Daniel1.501115113
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