TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13106342
Played Sep 10Finished
Jacek Mitas
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119711114115––
Krzysztof Kapik
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJacek Mitas above · Krzysztof Kapik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 69 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Krzysztof Kapik at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Mitas 5–5 Krzysztof Kapik Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:03What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kapik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mitas 1606 vs Kapik 1690
Kapik
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitas 40% vs Kapik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitas 50% vs Kapik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitas -2 · Kapik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kapik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitas 1.83 / Kapik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kapik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13106342
Mitas1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Kapik1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMitas5wins
AwayKapik5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMitas83.3%5 of 6
AwayKapik100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mitas6Kapik4n = 10Mitas took 6 of 10
S2Mitas3Kapik7n = 10Kapik took 7 of 10
S3Mitas8Kapik2n = 10Mitas took 8 of 10
S4Mitas1Kapik4n = 5Kapik took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMitasKapikM − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.435.40.0per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitasKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime103 / 223 vs 1119 / 210246.2%53.2%103 / 223 vs 1119 / 2102Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.839.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KapikMitas 1.83/Kapik 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mitas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 22 · 16:30J. Mitas—12540K. Kapik—1411113
WJun 14 · 21:10J. Mitas—1111113K. Kapik—5910
WJun 7 · 16:25J. Mitas—1111113K. Kapik—7870
WMay 27 · 24:15J. Mitas—11811113K. Kapik—711741
LMay 26 · 21:50J. Mitas—119111072K. Kapik—411912113
LMay 26 · 18:15J. Mitas—6131341K. Kapik—111511113
LMay 13 · 24:40J. Mitas—561351K. Kapik—111111113
LMay 12 · 22:15J. Mitas—122120K. Kapik—1411143
WMay 12 · 24:40J. Mitas—1111113K. Kapik—7370
WMay 11 · 22:15J. Mitas—1210174113K. Kapik—1012151192
J. Mitas10
LSep 10 · 17:40M. Olbrycht1.671111113J. Mitas2.104780LSep 10 · 16:55J. Mitas2.1081090J. Chmielowski1.671112113LAug 29 · 01:10J. Mitas1.50813451D. Solilo2.50111111113LAug 29 · 24:20J. Mitas1.5081461152K. Rudomina2.501112115113WAug 28 · 22:50J. Mitas2.501111113M. Rutkowski1.508980LAug 28 · 22:30J. Mitas2.10951171S. Sporek1.6711119113WAug 28 · 21:45T. Filbrandt1.91691151J. Mitas1.8011118113LAug 28 · 20:30J. Mitas3.406560K. Kolodziej1.301111113WAug 28 · 19:15S. Sporek1.6711111091J. Mitas2.1051312113WAug 28 · 18:05M. Rutkowski1.801271151J. Mitas1.9114117113
K. Kapik10
WSep 10 · 16:30K. Kapik1.671111113K. Staszczyk2.107820LSep 9 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.001113118113K. Kapik1.7391571142WSep 9 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.735790K. Kapik2.001111113WSep 9 · 22:10K. Kapik1.831111119113M. Olbrycht1.8361391162LSep 9 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.571311113K. Kapik2.2511680LSep 9 · 24:10K. Kapik2.0091170M. Rutkowski1.731113113WSep 8 · 23:20K. Kapik1.441111113K. Kostyk2.636370WSep 8 · 21:50K. Kapik2.00111011113K. Staszczyk1.73912871WSep 8 · 21:25K. Kapik1.73111311113L. Pietraszko2.00815571LSep 8 · 20:30K. Kostyk2.631111113K. Kapik1.448870
Upcoming Matches
J. Mitas2 of 10 neutral
Sep 10 · 18:30J. Mitas3.00K. Kolodziej1.36—Sep 10 · 20:05J. Mitas2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 10 · 21:25J. Mitas2.10J. Chmielowski1.67—Sep 10 · 22:10J. Mitas2.10M. Olbrycht1.67—Sep 10 · 22:55J. Mitas1.61M. Kolek2.20—Sep 11 · 24:35J. Mitas1.83K. Kapik1.83—Sep 11 · 16:55J. Mitas—M. Marchlewski——Sep 11 · 17:40J. Mitas—M. Nowalinski——Sep 11 · 19:15J. Mitas—T. Filbrandt——Sep 11 · 20:05J. Mitas—P. Jendrzejewski——
K. Kapik
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